Sierra Bancorp combines a strong earnings beat streak and cheap valuation with a stock that has already reached its price target and recent insider selling, muting the near-term risk/reward.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Catalyst↑Improving
- Attractive Valuation Low Peg→Stable
- Target Reached Limited Upside↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 6, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (54.6%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (72.0%).
Sierra Bancorp is the holding company for Bank of the Sierra, a California state-chartered bank operating 34 full-service branches across the South San Joaquin Valley, Central Coast and Ventura County. The bank had $3.8 billion in total assets, $2.5 billion in gross loans and... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (54.6%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (72.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost earnings 0.80, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 94d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Sierra Bancorp
About Sierra Bancorp
Sierra Bancorp held $3.8 billion in total assets, $2.5 billion in gross loans and $2.9 billion in deposits at December 31, 2025, operating 34 full-service branches for Bank of the Sierra across California's South San Joaquin Valley, Central Coast and Ventura County. Real estate loans made up 72% of the loan portfolio, and Sierra Bancorp is subject to primary oversight from the Federal Reserve and the FDIC.
Interest, fees and other income on real estate secured loans, the largest segment of the portfolio, totaled $90.7 million, or 61% of net interest plus other income, in 2025. Commercial real estate loans constitute 54.6% of total gross loans, split across retail (12.1%), office space (5.9%) and hospitality (9.4%) segments, while mortgage warehouse lending makes up 20.4% of gross loans and other commercial loans, including agricultural production and SBA loans, account for 7.6%. Uninsured deposits totaled $703 million, or 25% of total deposits, at year-end 2025. Sierra Bancorp competes against much larger institutions including Wells Fargo, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and U.S. Bank, which hold the largest deposit shares across the 27 cities where the bank maintains branches, though Bank of the Sierra ranks first in its home market of Tulare County with 21.6% deposit share.
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Regulatory scrutiny of commercial real estate concentration is a structural constraint for Sierra Bancorp: commercial and agricultural real estate, construction and land development, and multi-family loans comprise approximately 57.9% of the total loan portfolio, with the CRE-to-capital ratio having declined from a 2020 peak of 376% to 242% under the federal Concentration Guidance framework. A sustained downturn in Central California, where agricultural cycles and Kern County oil production drive collateral values, could push nonperforming assets higher and prompt regulators to require additional capital or curb loan growth.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Sierra Bancorp's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Sierra Bancorp
Latest news
- NEWS Sierra Bancorp (NASDAQ:BSRR) Earnings: Will a USD 2.5 Million Agricultural Loan Reserve Shape the Third-Quarter Reaction — kalkine.ca neutral
- NEWS As Late-October Results Near, What Could the Market Be Overlooking in Sierra Bancorp, Five Star Bancorp, Investar, HBT F — kalkine.ca neutral
- NEWS Price to sales forward of Sierra Bancorp – NASDAQ:BSRR - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Sierra Bancorp Approves $0.27 Dividend and Buyback of Up to One Million Shares - www.tokenpost.com — www.tokenpost.com positive
- NEWS Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) to Report Q3 Results: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:24Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans55%10-K Item 1: 'The Company had two loan categories that could be considered to be concentrations. The first was commercial real estate loans, which constituted 54.6% of total gross loans, with segments in retail (12.1%), office space (5.9%), and hospitality (9.4%).'
- LOWloan_portfoliomortgage warehouse loans20%10-K Item 1: 'The second loan category that could be considered a concentration was mortgage warehouse, which made up 20.4% of total gross loans.'
- HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate loans72%10-K Item 1A: 'At December 31, 2025, 72.0% of our loan portfolio consisted of real estate loans'
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliouninsured deposits25%10-K Item 1A: 'At December 31, 2025, the Bank estimates it had uninsured deposits of $703 million, or 25% of total deposits.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-20Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO William J. Wade II was terminated April 17, 2026 as part of an organizational realignment; CFO Christopher Treece assumed the COO role with a $25,000 base-salary increase. Marc Wolfe was separately appointed Principal Accounting Officer effective the same date.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
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Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (54.6%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (72.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $38.36 reached (−9.4%), stop $39.82 (−6.3%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 6.7/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $38.36 reached (−9.4% from $42.34); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $38.36 reached (−9.4%), stop $39.82 (−6.3%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $39.82.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (54.6%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Sierra Bancorp trades at a P/E of 11.0 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
11 analysts cover BSRR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $45.
What does Sierra Bancorp do?Sierra Bancorp is the holding company for Bank of the Sierra, a California state-chartered bank operating 34...
Sierra Bancorp is the holding company for Bank of the Sierra, a California state-chartered bank operating 34 full-service branches across the South San Joaquin Valley, Central Coast and Ventura County. The bank had $3.8 billion in total assets, $2.5 billion in gross loans and $2.9 billion in deposits at December 31, 2025. Its loan book is concentrated in commercial real estate (54.6% of gross loans) and mortgage warehouse lending (20.4%).