Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
BSRR · Why this verdict
Why Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Sierra Bancorp combines a strong earnings beat streak and cheap valuation with a stock that has already reached its price target and recent insider selling, muting the near-term risk/reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Sierra Bancorp has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 6.7%, and the model flags an earnings catalyst edge ahead of its July 27 report. Edge rationale | The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA beat streak built on conservative guidance can break the moment the bank faces a genuine credit or margin surprise. | ||
Sierra Bancorp trades at a forward P/E of roughly 10.6x with a PEG ratio of just 0.22, indicating the stock is cheap relative to its earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay below 1.0 over the next 12 months for the valuation case to remain intact. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank PEG ratios can look artificially low if analyst growth estimates prove too optimistic once rate or credit conditions shift. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with the model showing negative asymmetry (-1.0), roughly 14.2% downside risk against essentially no further modeled upside. Bear case | A new, higher analyst target should emerge, or the price should pull back toward a more favorable entry, for the risk/reward to improve over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBanks near 52-week highs with strong beat streaks can continue re-rating higher as estimates catch up to actual performance, defying a stale price target. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers of Sierra Bancorp, offloading roughly 25,000 shares across 4 separate transactions with zero offsetting purchases, generating a BEARISH insider signal. Insider | The insider signal should shift back to NEUTRAL or BULLISH over the next 12 months if selling pressure abates. | →Stable |
| CounterRoutine, scheduled insider sales for diversification or tax purposes are common at small banks and don't necessarily reflect a negative view of the business. | ||
Sierra Bancorp has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 6.7%, and the model flags an earnings catalyst edge ahead of its July 27 report.
↑ImprovingEdge rationale
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates.
CounterA beat streak built on conservative guidance can break the moment the bank faces a genuine credit or margin surprise.
Sierra Bancorp trades at a forward P/E of roughly 10.6x with a PEG ratio of just 0.22, indicating the stock is cheap relative to its earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay below 1.0 over the next 12 months for the valuation case to remain intact.
CounterRegional bank PEG ratios can look artificially low if analyst growth estimates prove too optimistic once rate or credit conditions shift.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with the model showing negative asymmetry (-1.0), roughly 14.2% downside risk against essentially no further modeled upside.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- A new, higher analyst target should emerge, or the price should pull back toward a more favorable entry, for the risk/reward to improve over the next 12 months.
CounterBanks near 52-week highs with strong beat streaks can continue re-rating higher as estimates catch up to actual performance, defying a stale price target.
Insiders have been net sellers of Sierra Bancorp, offloading roughly 25,000 shares across 4 separate transactions with zero offsetting purchases, generating a BEARISH insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should shift back to NEUTRAL or BULLISH over the next 12 months if selling pressure abates.
CounterRoutine, scheduled insider sales for diversification or tax purposes are common at small banks and don't necessarily reflect a negative view of the business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.1x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.6 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.51 (n=5)
Insider
6.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.2 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $40,703 (0.007% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.6 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 2.4 |
| volatility | 5.1 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD_NO_UPSIDEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.80
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:94d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.02
Upside
-9.4%
Downside
9.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.2; weakest: Technical at 4.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.2, Value at 8.0, and Momentum at 7.8; the weakest are Technical at 4.2, Quality at 5.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Catalyst
Trip ifThe beat streak breaks, with at least 2 misses in the next 4 reported quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.5 from the current 0.22.
- P3Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifA new analyst target sets modeled upside above 10% while downside stays below 10%.
- P4Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider signal flips to BULLISH with net share purchases of more than 10,000 shares.