Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
BSRR · Why this verdict
Why Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Sierra Bancorp has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 6.7%, and the model flags an earnings catalyst edge ahead of its July 27 report. Edge rationale | The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterA beat streak built on conservative guidance can break the moment the bank faces a genuine credit or margin surprise. | ||
Sierra Bancorp trades at a forward P/E of roughly 10.6x with a PEG ratio of just 0.22, indicating the stock is cheap relative to its earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay below 1.0 over the next 12 months for the valuation case to remain intact. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank PEG ratios can look artificially low if analyst growth estimates prove too optimistic once rate or credit conditions shift. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with the model showing negative asymmetry (-1.0), roughly 14.2% downside risk against essentially no further modeled upside. Bear case | A new, higher analyst target should emerge, or the price should pull back toward a more favorable entry, for the risk/reward to improve over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBanks near 52-week highs with strong beat streaks can continue re-rating higher as estimates catch up to actual performance, defying a stale price target. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers of Sierra Bancorp, offloading roughly 25,000 shares across 4 separate transactions with zero offsetting purchases, generating a BEARISH insider signal. Insider | The insider signal should shift back to NEUTRAL or BULLISH over the next 12 months if selling pressure abates. | →Stable |
| CounterRoutine, scheduled insider sales for diversification or tax purposes are common at small banks and don't necessarily reflect a negative view of the business. | ||
Sierra Bancorp has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 6.7%, and the model flags an earnings catalyst edge ahead of its July 27 report.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates.
CounterA beat streak built on conservative guidance can break the moment the bank faces a genuine credit or margin surprise.
Sierra Bancorp trades at a forward P/E of roughly 10.6x with a PEG ratio of just 0.22, indicating the stock is cheap relative to its earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay below 1.0 over the next 12 months for the valuation case to remain intact.
CounterRegional bank PEG ratios can look artificially low if analyst growth estimates prove too optimistic once rate or credit conditions shift.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with the model showing negative asymmetry (-1.0), roughly 14.2% downside risk against essentially no further modeled upside.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- A new, higher analyst target should emerge, or the price should pull back toward a more favorable entry, for the risk/reward to improve over the next 12 months.
CounterBanks near 52-week highs with strong beat streaks can continue re-rating higher as estimates catch up to actual performance, defying a stale price target.
Insiders have been net sellers of Sierra Bancorp, offloading roughly 25,000 shares across 4 separate transactions with zero offsetting purchases, generating a BEARISH insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should shift back to NEUTRAL or BULLISH over the next 12 months if selling pressure abates.
CounterRoutine, scheduled insider sales for diversification or tax purposes are common at small banks and don't necessarily reflect a negative view of the business.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Sierra Bancorp combines a strong earnings beat streak and cheap valuation with a stock that has already reached its price target and recent insider selling, muting the near-term risk/reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.4 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $954,085 (0.179% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 4.4 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| implied vol | 0.1 |
| beta | 8.4 |
- ▸High IV: 79%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (4)
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.18%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.00
Upside
-12.0%
Downside
12.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 19d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT. Top dim: Value at 7.7; weakest: Momentum at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Growth at 7.7, and Technical at 6.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Insider at 4.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Catalyst
Trip ifThe beat streak breaks, with at least 2 misses in the next 4 reported quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.5 from the current 0.22.
- P3Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifA new analyst target sets modeled upside above 10% while downside stays below 10%.
- P4Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider signal flips to BULLISH with net share purchases of more than 10,000 shares.