BrightSpire is a deeply discounted mortgage REIT (price $3.66 vs $5.19 analyst target) but four straight earnings misses, cash burn and a downtrend make the recovery unproven.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Vs Analyst Target→Stable
- Persistent Earnings Misses↑Improving
- Cash Burn And Revenue Decline→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026
BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP) Stock Analysis
Sector Rotation edge
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $3.66: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
BrightSpire Capital is an internally-managed commercial real estate credit REIT that originates and manages a diversified portfolio of senior mortgage loans, selective mezzanine loans and preferred equity, and net leased properties across the United States. The company earns net... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $3.66: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 110d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — BrightSpire Capital, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Brightspire Capital earnings missed by $0.02, revenue fell short of estimates - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS Brightspire Capital earnings matched, revenue topped estimates - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS BrightSpire Capital (NYSE:BRSP) Releases Quarterly Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.02 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS BrightSpire (BRSP) Misses Q2 Earnings Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS BRSP Looks 4.0% Undervalued on GF Value™ - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-20Item 5.02LOWCEO Michael Mazzei's employment agreement was extended via a First Amendment dated May 19, 2026, pushing the term end from March 31, 2027 to March 31, 2030, while reducing his target annual bonus and equity incentive opportunities for 2027-2029.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-13Item 5.02LOWAt the May 13, 2026 annual meeting, stockholders approved a second amendment to the 2022 Equity Incentive Plan increasing shares available for issuance by 10,000,000 and adding a cash-denominated limit on non-employee director awards.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -3.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $3.66: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $3.45. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $5.19 (+41.9% upside). Prior stop was $3.45. Stop-loss: $3.45.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
BrightSpire Capital, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 5.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover BRSP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $6.
What does BrightSpire Capital, Inc. do?BrightSpire Capital is an internally-managed commercial real estate credit REIT that originates and manages a...
BrightSpire Capital is an internally-managed commercial real estate credit REIT that originates and manages a diversified portfolio of senior mortgage loans, selective mezzanine loans and preferred equity, and net leased properties across the United States. The company earns net interest income and net-lease rental income, funded through secured repurchase facilities, securitizations, and commercial mortgages.