Revenue has contracted 9% with three of four recent quarters missing estimates — including a 24% shortfall in the most recent period — while the stock has already crossed above its price target; a confirmed technical downtrend and 89% end-market concentration compound the risk, leaving no clear case for new capital at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Contraction Earnings Misses↑Improving
- Single Segment Supplier Concentration↑Improving
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026
Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments
Sell if holding. At $149.68, A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Utility Water (89.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers for brass castings, resins, and electronic subassemblies.
Badger Meter manufactures water metering and management solutions, with Utility Water (AMI systems, BEACON SaaS, water quality sensors) representing approximately 89% of 2025 net sales and Flow Instrumentation the remaining 11%. Products are sold to water utilities through a... Read more
Sell if holding. At $149.68, A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Utility Water (89.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers for brass castings, resins, and electronic subassemblies. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Badger Meter, Inc.
About Badger Meter, Inc.
Badger Meter's Utility Water segment generated approximately 89% of 2025 net sales, covering water meters, ORION AMI radio endpoints, BEACON SaaS, and water quality sensors for utility customers; Flow Instrumentation accounted for the remaining 11%. The company spent $21.6 million on R&D in 2025, employed 2,477 people at December 31, 2025, and estimates roughly 40% of U.S. water meters have converted to AMI systems, with the majority still subject to upgrade.
Badger Meter earns revenue from hardware sales (meters, endpoints, sensors), SaaS subscriptions (BEACON), and professional services, with margins driven by mix toward radio-equipped AMI meters, ultrasonic units, and water quality monitoring versus lower-margin mechanical and manually-read products. Utility water is sold primarily through a direct salesforce with regional distributors; flow instrumentation moves through manufacturer representatives and original equipment manufacturers into water/wastewater, HVAC, and corporate sustainability applications. Competition in the utility water product line includes Sensus (Xylem Inc.), Neptune (Roper Technologies), Itron, Aclara (Hubbell), Mueller Water Products, and Kamstrup. The company relies on single suppliers for brass castings, resins, and microprocessors, and acknowledges that while alternatives are available, losing any of these suppliers could cause short-term cost increases, delivery delays, and quality control expenses. The company manufactures domestically in Milwaukee, Racine, and Tulsa, and internationally in Nogales (Mexico), Brno (Czech Republic), and Bern (Switzerland).
Show full overview
Tariffs compound BMI's single-source supplier exposure: the company manufactures in Mexico and Europe, and the 10-K notes tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, Canada, and Europe could harm sales and results of operations, particularly within non-US manufacturing facilities where raw material costs for brass-based castings and electronic subassemblies are most directly affected. The cancellation or significant modification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) could raise tariff costs and disrupt the supply chain from Nogales, Mexico, a named manufacturing location.
See also: Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments
From Badger Meter, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — Badger Meter, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Badger Meter (NYSE:BMI) Shares Down 5.4% - Should You Sell? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS BADGER METER, INC. INVESTORS WITH LOSSES HAVE UNTIL AUGUST - GlobeNewswire — GlobeNewswire negative
- NEWS BADGER METER ($BMI) Releases Q2 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS Badger Meter (NYSE:BMI) Reports Q2 CY2026 In Line With Expectations - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Badger Meter: Q2 Earnings Snapshot - KING5.com — KING5.com neutral
Generated 2026-10-30T12:27:48Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductUtility Water89%10-K Item 1: 'Utility Water Product Line (approximately 89% of Net Sales in 2025)'
- HIGHSuppliersingle suppliers for brass castings, resins, and electronic subassemblies10-K Item 1: 'the Company relies on single suppliers for certain brass castings, resins and electronic subassemblies'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $149.68, A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Utility Water (89.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers for brass castings, resins, and electronic subassemblies. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $139.20. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $144.20 reached (−3.7% from $149.68); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $139.20. Stop-loss: $139.20.
Concentration risk — Product: Utility Water (89.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers for brass castings, resins, and electronic subassemblies; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Badger Meter, Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.6 (forward 30.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover BMI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $166.
What does Badger Meter, Inc. do?Badger Meter manufactures water metering and management solutions, with Utility Water (AMI systems, BEACON SaaS, water...
Badger Meter manufactures water metering and management solutions, with Utility Water (AMI systems, BEACON SaaS, water quality sensors) representing approximately 89% of 2025 net sales and Flow Instrumentation the remaining 11%. Products are sold to water utilities through a direct salesforce and to industrial customers through distributors, with no single customer exceeding 10% of sales. The company employed 2,477 people at December 31, 2025 and relies on single suppliers for brass castings, resins, and electronic subassemblies.