TopBuild Corp. (BLD) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Wait for pullback to $426.89. BUY gates pass at $443.27, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $426.89 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
TopBuild is a leading installer of insulation and commercial roofing and specialty distributor of building products in the US and Canada. Installation Services (~59% of sales, 200+ branches) and Specialty Distribution (~41%, 250+ centers) serve residential and commercial... Read more
Wait for pullback to $426.89. BUY gates pass at $443.27, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $426.89 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of large suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'we procure the majority of our building products—principally insulation and roofing materials—from a limited number of large suppliers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-17Item 5.02LOWJoseph M. Viselli (VP and Chief Growth Officer) notified intent to retire effective June 30, 2026. Will remain through transition. Decision for personal reasons; no disagreement cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-02Item 5.02LOWJohn Achille promoted from VP and COO to President and COO effective April 1, 2026. Retains responsibility for Installation Services, Specialty Distribution, Supply Chain, and growth/M&A. Reports to CEO Robert Buck.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $426.89. BUY gates pass at $443.27, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $426.89 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $481.33 (+8.6%), stop $387.73 (−14.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $481.33 (+12.6% upside). Target $481.33 (+8.6%), stop $387.73 (−14.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $387.73.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.
TopBuild Corp. trades at a P/E of 24.2 (forward 21.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
20 analysts cover BLD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $479.
What does TopBuild Corp. do?TopBuild is a leading installer of insulation and commercial roofing and specialty distributor of building products in...
TopBuild is a leading installer of insulation and commercial roofing and specialty distributor of building products in the US and Canada. Installation Services (~59% of sales, 200+ branches) and Specialty Distribution (~41%, 250+ centers) serve residential and commercial construction customers.