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BAKBraskem SAHold5.5·$1.19
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Braskem sits outside the investable universe by market capitalization at $0.84 billion — below the $1 billion minimum threshold — and carries cash-burning operations with free cash flow negative at 10% of revenue, a 20% revenue decline, and a Piotroski financial health score of only 3 out of 9; despite a sharp 44% upward revision to analyst estimates over the last month, the fundamental setup does not support investment.

Thesis pillars

  • Sub Investable Market Cap Barrier↓Deteriorating
  • Cash Burning Deteriorating Quality→Stable
  • Revenue Contraction Unreliable Earnings↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Braskem SA (BAK) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Sector Rotation edge

HoldGrowthModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Chemicals

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $269M below $400M minimum.

Braskem S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, sale, import, and export of chemicals, petrochemicals, and fuels in Brazil. The company supplies electricity and other inputs to second-generation producers; sells utilities, such as steam, water,... Read more

$1.19+21.4% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#7 of 14 Chemicals
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-2828.25%
Stop $1.11Analyst target $1.44(−13% haircut)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst consensus$1.66+39.5%5 analysts
$1.44Analyst target
$1.19price
$1.66mean
$2

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $269M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Market cap $269M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — Braskem SA

Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:39Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 202614d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Market cap $269M below $400M minimum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-1.1
Mkt Cap$269M
EV/EBITDA7.5
Profit Mgn-7.8%
ROE—
Rev Growth21.6%
Beta0.67
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.5
Macd
3.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
2.3
Current Ratio
3.1
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.5
Operating Margin
6.9
Cash-burning: FCF -11% of revenueQuality concerns
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
30 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $0.92Resistance $1.89

Price Targets

$1
$1
A.Upside+21.4%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Market cap $269M below $400M minimum
! momentum at 2.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BAK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $269M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Market cap $269M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Analyst target $1.44 (+21.4%), stop $1.11 (−7.2%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BAK stock price target?

Analyst target: $1.44 (+21.4% upside). Analyst target $1.44 (+21.4%), stop $1.11 (−7.2%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Stop-loss: $1.11.

What are the risks of investing in BAK?

Market cap $269M below $400M minimum.

Is BAK overvalued or undervalued?

Braskem SA trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -1.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BAK?

15 analysts cover BAK with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $2.

What does Braskem SA do?Braskem S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, sale, import, and export of chemicals,...

Braskem S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, sale, import, and export of chemicals, petrochemicals, and fuels in Brazil. The company supplies electricity and other inputs to second-generation producers; sells utilities, such as steam, water, compressed air and industrial gases; industrial services; and engages in the production, supply, and sale of electric energy and gas. It also produces and sells polyethylene, including the production of green PE made from renewable resources, and polypropylene; and polyvinyl chloride and caustic soda. In addition, the company provides thermoplastic resins; and other basic petrochemicals. It has operations in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Copene Petroquímica do Nordeste S.A. and changed its name to Braskem S.A. in 2002. Braskem S.A. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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