AXT Inc (AXTI) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $92.95: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality.
AXT develops and produces compound (InP, GaAs) and single element (Ge) semiconductor substrates plus raw materials through consolidated subsidiaries in China. Substrate wafers generated 67% of 2025 consolidated revenue; raw materials 33%. All manufacturing is in China, with... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $92.95: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicChina (manufacturing)10-K Item 1A: 'All of our wafer substrates are manufactured in China'
- MEDIUMProductIndium phosphide substrates10-K Item 1A: 'Indium phosphide substrates are the primary revenue generator derived from imports into the U.S.'
- LOWGeographicNorth America (2% of revenue)2.0%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 2%, 8% and 10% of our revenue, respectively, were generated by sales to customers in North America, primarily in the U.S.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-01-29Item 5.02LOWLeonard J. LeBlanc reclassified as independent director by AXT Board on January 26, 2026. Jesse Chen stepped down as Audit Committee Chair; LeBlanc appointed as new Chair. Mr. Chen remains on the Audit Committee.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -24.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $92.95: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $85.64. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $94.08 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $85.64. Stop-loss: $85.64.
Concentration risk — Geographic: China (manufacturing); Target reached (-37.5% upside); Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0).
AXT Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 151.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover AXTI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $68.
What does AXT Inc do?AXT develops and produces compound (InP, GaAs) and single element (Ge) semiconductor substrates plus raw materials...
AXT develops and produces compound (InP, GaAs) and single element (Ge) semiconductor substrates plus raw materials through consolidated subsidiaries in China. Substrate wafers generated 67% of 2025 consolidated revenue; raw materials 33%. All manufacturing is in China, with escalating U.S.-China trade restrictions including export permit requirements on InP wafers.