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AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd.Sell5.7·$33.11+1.32%
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Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $33.11 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Axalta Coating Systems manufactures high-performance coatings across two segments: Performance Coatings (automotive refinish and industrial) serving approximately 96,000 body shops in more than 140 countries, and Mobility Coatings supplying nine of the top ten global automotive... Read more

$33.11-0.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#8 of 36 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.52%
Stop $30.79Target $33.08(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$35.71+7.9%14 analysts
$33.08our TP
$33.11price
$35.71mean
$30
$44

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $33.11 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.4
P/E (Fwd)11.8
Mkt Cap$7.1B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn7.2%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth-0.6%
Beta1.26
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.48bullish
IV67%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop ten Mobility Coatings customers61%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top ten customers accounted for approximately 61% of our Mobility Coatings net sales during the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
1.4
Gap
4.0
52w Position
8.5

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.2
Quality Rank
6.2
Value Rank
6.8
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
77 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.79Resistance $33.75

Price Targets

$31
$33
A.Upside-0.1%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXTA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $33.11 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Prior stop was $30.79. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXTA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $33.08 (-0.1% upside). Prior stop was $30.79. Stop-loss: $30.79.

What are the risks of investing in AXTA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is AXTA overvalued or undervalued?

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. trades at a P/E of 19.4 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AXTA?

21 analysts cover AXTA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $36.

What does Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. do?Axalta Coating Systems manufactures high-performance coatings across two segments: Performance Coatings (automotive...

Axalta Coating Systems manufactures high-performance coatings across two segments: Performance Coatings (automotive refinish and industrial) serving approximately 96,000 body shops in more than 140 countries, and Mobility Coatings supplying nine of the top ten global automotive OEMs at over 200 assembly plants worldwide. In November 2025, Axalta entered a Merger Agreement with AkzoNobel N.V. for an all-stock combination.

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