Four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 8%, a golden cross, and all moving averages aligned upward confirm the underlying franchise quality; however, the price is just below the resistance target with only 0.5% headroom remaining and the risk/reward has turned unfavorable at 0.12-to-1 — the setup supports holding an existing position but does not compel new capital.
Thesis pillars
- Commercial Loan Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Strong Technical Momentum↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial loans (65.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC.
Associated Banc-Corp is the largest bank holding company headquartered in Wisconsin, operating 184 branches across Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri through its nationally chartered subsidiary Associated Bank, with roughly 4,000 employees. Revenue is... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial loans (65.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Associated Banc-Corp
About Associated Banc-Corp
The largest bank holding company headquartered in Wisconsin, Associated Banc-Corp operated 184 banking branches in Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri as of December 31, 2025, with Associated Bank supervised by the OCC. Commercial and industrial, real estate construction, and CRE loans combined totaled 65% of the loan portfolio at that date. The company employed roughly 4,000 colleagues and on April 1, 2026 completed its previously announced acquisition of American National Corporation, valued at approximately $604 million based on Associated's closing stock price as of November 28, 2025.
Associated Banc-Corp earns primarily through net interest income on a loan book concentrated in commercial credits. CRE loans—including owner-occupied, investor, and construction—totaled $8.4 billion, or 27% of the total loan portfolio, and represented 183% of total risk-based capital at December 31, 2025. Nonaccrual CRE loans were $8.7 million, less than 1% of the CRE portfolio. On the funding side, estimated uninsured and uncollateralized deposits were $9.4 billion, or 26.5% of total deposits at December 31, 2025, a liquidity concentration the 10-K flags in the context of the 2023 bank failures. Moody's and S&P Global Ratings each downgraded the company's long-term issuer credit ratings in August 2023; those ratings were unchanged as of December 31, 2025. The Federal Reserve oversees the holding company under the BHC Act while the OCC has primary supervisory and regulatory authority over Associated Bank.
Show full overview
Credit cycle exposure is concentrated in CRE: the 10-K notes that CRE loans generally involve greater credit risk than residential mortgages due to larger balances and dependence on successful property operation. The filing flags that the outlook for CRE depends on how major subsectors respond to higher vacancy rates as loans come up for refinancing, and that the deterioration of one or a few large commercial loans could cause a significant increase in nonaccrual loans and materially affect financial condition.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Associated Banc-Corp's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Associated Banc-Corp
Latest news
- NEWS Insider Selling: Associated Banc (NYSE:ASB) Director Sells 4,000 Shares of Stock - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Associated Banc-Corp to Issue Quarterly Dividend of $0.24 (NYSE:ASB) - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Assessing Whether Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) Looks Undervalued After Recent Share Performance And Profitability Signals — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS Form 4 Associated Banc-Corp For: 22 July By Investing.com - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada neutral
- NEWS ASB stock trades steady as Associated Banc-Corp grows earnings and loan book - Ad-hoc-news.de — Ad-hoc-news.de positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:24Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial loans65%10-K Item 1A: '65% of our loan portfolio consisted of commercial and industrial, real estate construction, and CRE loans'
- MEDIUMloan_portfolioCRE loans27%10-K Item 1A: 'CRE loans, including owner occupied, investor, and real estate construction loans, totaled $8.4 billion, or 27%, of our total loan portfolio and 183% of total risk-based capital'
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliouninsured deposits27%10-K Item 1A: 'Estimated uninsured and uncollateralized deposits, excluding intercompany deposits, were $9.4 billion or 26.5% of total deposits at December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMGeographicfour-state branch footprint10-K Item 1: 'serving more than 100 communities, primarily within our four-state branch footprint'
- HIGHregulatoryOCC10-K Item 1: 'Associated Bank and our nationally-chartered trust company subsidiary are regulated, supervised and examined by the OCC'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-01Item 5.02LOWAssociated completed acquisition of American National Corporation on April 1, 2026. Board expanded from 13 to 14 directors; one new director appointed. Routine board change in connection with merger close.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial loans (65.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $29.84 reached (−0.5%), stop $28.90 (−3.8%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $29.84 reached (−0.5% from $30.00); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $29.84 reached (−0.5%), stop $28.90 (−3.8%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $28.90.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial loans (65.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Associated Banc-Corp trades at a P/E of 10.3 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
14 analysts cover ASB with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $34.
What does Associated Banc-Corp do?Associated Banc-Corp is the largest bank holding company headquartered in Wisconsin, operating 184 branches across...
Associated Banc-Corp is the largest bank holding company headquartered in Wisconsin, operating 184 branches across Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri through its nationally chartered subsidiary Associated Bank, with roughly 4,000 employees. Revenue is relationship-driven across three segments: Corporate and Commercial Specialty, Community Consumer and Business, and Risk Management and Shared Services.