Four consecutive large earnings beats averaging roughly 32% upside and 39% year-over-year growth demonstrate strong execution, but the stock is trading above its near-term resistance target with a negative risk/reward, free cash flow converts at only 36% of reported net income, and 70% revenue concentration in global components leaves the earnings stream acutely exposed to inventory and demand cycles.
Thesis pillars
- Product Concentration Cyclical Exposure→Stable
- Fcf Quality Red Flag→Stable
- Price Above Resistance Negative Asymmetry↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026
Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Electronics & Computer Distribution
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $222.95: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Arrow Electronics distributes electronic components to OEMs and EMS providers through its global components segment (70% of 2025 sales) and enterprise computing solutions to VARs and MSPs through global ECS (30%), serving over 85 countries via 140+ sales facilities. The company... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $222.95: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Arrow Electronics, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Arrow Electronics Highlights SAM Car Project in New Film Series — fiscal.ai Oct 26, 2026 positive
- NEWS Arrow Electronics Hosts Technical Seminar in Seoul — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Here’s How Much You Would Have Made Owning Arrow Electronics Stock In The Last 15 Years — benzinga Oct 13, 2026 positive
- NEWS Arrow Electronics Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Oct 12, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Arrow Electronics Announces It Was Awarded Distribution Rights For HPE Networking Portfolio Across North America And Sel — benzinga Sep 2, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductglobal components70%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 70% of the company's sales were from global components'
- MEDIUMProductsemiconductor products50%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales of semiconductor products and related services represented approximately 50%, 53%, and 60%, of the company's consolidated sales in 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $222.95: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $207.34. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $199.75 reached (−10.4% from $222.95); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $207.34. Stop-loss: $207.34.
Concentration risk — Product: global components (70.0%); Target reached (-10.4% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).
Arrow Electronics, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover ARW with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $235.
What does Arrow Electronics, Inc. do?Arrow Electronics distributes electronic components to OEMs and EMS providers through its global components segment...
Arrow Electronics distributes electronic components to OEMs and EMS providers through its global components segment (70% of 2025 sales) and enterprise computing solutions to VARs and MSPs through global ECS (30%), serving over 85 countries via 140+ sales facilities. The company employs approximately 22,230 people worldwide and generated sales where no single customer exceeded 2% of 2025 consolidated revenue.