Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ARQT stock price target?

Take-profit $30.23 (+29.1% upside). Prior stop was $21.78.

Q: What are the risks of investing in ARQT?

Concentration risk — Product: ZORYVE; Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0); Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0); Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is ARQT overvalued or undervalued?

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 19.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ARQT?

14 analysts cover ARQT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $35.

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-02

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.36: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.78; Below-average business quality.

$23.36+29.1% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#20 of 158 Biotechnology

Stop $21.78Target $30.23(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.5:1

Analyst target$34.75+48.8%8 analysts

$30.23our TP

$23.36price

$34.75mean

$36

Passes 4/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: ZORYVE

Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)19.3

Mkt Cap$2.9B

EV/EBITDA-366.9

Profit Mgn-4.3%

ROE-9.3%

Rev Growth81.5%

Beta1.77

DividendNone

Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C4.78bearish

IV94%elevated

Max Pain$13-46.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductZORYVE
10-K Item 1A: 'Our business is dependent on the successful commercialization of ZORYVE and the development, regulatory approval, and commercialization of our current product candidates.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.115%1.06

Quality4.715%0.70

Growth10.015%1.50

Momentum2.610%0.26

Sentiment8.610%0.86

Insider Activity3.310%0.33

Peer Rank4.810%0.48

Technical Setup5.75%0.29

Risk Profile2.85%0.14

Catalyst7.05%0.35

Overall (Σ contributions)5.98

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Macd

2.6

Ma Position

4.0

Rsi

5.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Days To Cover

0.0

Put Call

0.0

Implied Vol

0.0

Volatility

2.0

Short Interest

2.9

Max Pain Risk

3.0

Beta

4.1

News Risk

6.0

Debt Equity

7.4

Elevated put/call: 4.78High IV: 94%Above max pain $12Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

45 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $22.13Resistance $25.47

Price Targets

$22

$30

A.Upside+29.4%

A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0)

! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ARQT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.36: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.78; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $21.78. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARQT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.23 (+29.1% upside). Prior stop was $21.78. Stop-loss: $21.78.

What are the risks of investing in ARQT?

Concentration risk — Product: ZORYVE; Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0).

Is ARQT overvalued or undervalued?

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 19.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARQT?

14 analysts cover ARQT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. do?Arcutis Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma focused on dermatological diseases, with four FDA-approved...

Arcutis Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma focused on dermatological diseases, with four FDA-approved products all under the ZORYVE brand (roflumilast): cream 0.3% for plaque psoriasis, foam for seborrheic dermatitis and scalp/body psoriasis, and creams 0.15% and 0.05% for atopic dermatitis. Net loss was $16.1M in 2025 with $1.14B accumulated deficit. The Kowa co-promotion agreement was terminated January 2026.