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ARQTArcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.Hold6.3·$22.70+5.39%
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Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.70, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: ZORYVE; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).

Arcutis Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma company focused on dermatological diseases, with four FDA-approved ZORYVE products (roflumilast formulations) for plaque psoriasis, seborrheic dermatitis, and atopic dermatitis launched 2022–2025. Revenue comes from U.S.... Read more

$22.70+32.2% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#15 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield0.13%
Stop $21.19Target $30.12(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$34.63+52.5%8 analysts
$30.12our TP
$22.70price
$34.63mean
$36

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.70, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: ZORYVE; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 76. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.

About Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.

Arcutis Biotherapeutics holds four FDA-approved ZORYVE products — cream 0.3% for plaque psoriasis (July 2022), foam 0.3% for seborrheic dermatitis (December 2023) and scalp psoriasis (May 2025), cream 0.15% for atopic dermatitis (July 2024), and cream 0.05% for atopic dermatitis in children ages 2 to 5 (October 2025). The company reported a net loss of approximately $16.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, with an accumulated deficit of $1,138.1 million. All commercial revenue derives from the ZORYVE franchise sold in the United States and Canada.

Arcutis sells ZORYVE through a dermatologist-focused sales force in the United States and Canada. A promotion agreement with Kowa Pharmaceuticals America, Inc. to market ZORYVE through primary care and pediatric channels was mutually terminated effective January 23, 2026, and the company has since recaptured direct responsibility for that prescribing base. The company estimates an actively prescription-treated patient market of approximately 17.0 million in the U.S. across plaque psoriasis, seborrheic dermatitis, and atopic dermatitis, with roughly 3.7 million of dermatology-office patients covered by Medicare or Medicaid and roughly 4.7 million by private payers. The active pharmaceutical ingredient roflumilast is licensed exclusively from AstraZeneca AB under a 2018 agreement, with patent exclusivity for the cream formulation through 2037 and the foam formulation through 2042.

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Arcutis's $100.0 million outstanding Loan Agreement with SLR Investment Corp. at December 31, 2025 requires the company to generate minimum net product revenue equal to 75% of projected net product revenue, tested on a trailing six-month basis each month, with the board-approved annual plan serving as the benchmark. A tranche C-1 term loan of up to $50.0 million expired March 31, 2026 and a tranche C-2 of up to $50.0 million expires June 30, 2026. If ZORYVE revenue growth fails to meet projections, the revenue covenant could trigger an event of default, potentially accelerating debt obligations due August 1, 2029.

See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology

From Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: ZORYVE
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
Negative news sentiment (-0.67)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)18.6
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA473.2
Profit Mgn-0.6%
ROE-1.4%
Rev Growth60.1%
Beta1.52
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.50bearish
IV92%elevated
Max Pain$40+76.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductZORYVE
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business, including our ability to finance our company and generate any revenue in the future, will primarily depend on the successful commercialization of ZORYVE'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
52w Position
4.3
Gap
5.0
GatesMomentum 6.5>=5.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
76 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $19.30Resistance $22.87

Price Targets

$21
$30
A.Upside+32.7%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts14
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$35

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARQT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.70, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: ZORYVE; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 76. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $30.12 (+32.7%), stop $21.19 (−7.1%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARQT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.12 (+32.2% upside). Target $30.12 (+32.7%), stop $21.19 (−7.1%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $21.19.

What are the risks of investing in ARQT?

Concentration risk — Product: ZORYVE; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Negative news sentiment (-0.67).

Is ARQT overvalued or undervalued?

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 18.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ARQT?

14 analysts cover ARQT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. do?Arcutis Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma company focused on dermatological diseases, with four...

Arcutis Biotherapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma company focused on dermatological diseases, with four FDA-approved ZORYVE products (roflumilast formulations) for plaque psoriasis, seborrheic dermatitis, and atopic dermatitis launched 2022–2025. Revenue comes from U.S. prescription drug sales of ZORYVE, supplemented by licensing agreements with Huadong (Greater China/Southeast Asia) and Sato (Japan).

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