Value
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
ARQT · Why this verdict
Why Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 3.2 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 1%, FCF yield 0.1%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 61 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 60% YoY
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 64%
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $731,970 (0.028% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 7.0 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.1 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 3.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.5 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 2.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.17
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Above max pain $12
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
5.19
Upside
+43.1%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.52>1.3, MCap $2.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 8.2, and Value at 7.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.7, Insider at 3.8, and Technical at 4.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.