Business quality sits below the minimum acceptable threshold with no identifiable competitive moat, the stock is already trading above the analyst consensus target with a negative risk/reward, and price momentum has failed its minimum threshold with volume in distribution — the aggregate signal favors reducing exposure rather than adding to the position.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Minimum Threshold↑Improving
- Growth Peer Leadership→Stable
- Price Above Analyst Target↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 25, 2025
Aramark (ARMK) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Specialty Business Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.02: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Aramark provides food and facilities services to education, healthcare, business, and sports/leisure clients across 16 countries, generating $18.5 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue split $13.2 billion (71%) from FSS United States and $5.3 billion (29%) from FSS International. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.02: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Aramark
About Aramark
Aramark generated $18.5 billion in total revenue in fiscal 2025, split $13.2 billion (71%) from FSS United States and $5.3 billion (29%) from FSS International across 16 countries. The company served approximately 1,345 colleges and universities, over 920 healthcare facilities, and 26 Major League Baseball, NBA, NFL, and NHL team accounts, employing 278,390 people including 144,240 in the U.S. segment.
Aramark earns revenue under two contract structures: profit-and-loss contracts (roughly two-thirds of fiscal 2025 revenue), where it bears full food, labor, and overhead cost risk; and client-interest contracts (about one-third), where clients reimburse costs and pay management fees. Food purchasing is negotiated directly with manufacturers and primarily distributed through Sysco, which delivered approximately 43% of food and non-food products in the United States and Canada in fiscal 2025 by purchase dollars, under a relationship spanning over 40 years. Secondary distributors include US Foods, Performance Food Group, and regional providers. Education and sports-leisure contracts typically require upfront capital investments and carry fixed terms of five to fifteen years. Internationally, the company's largest operations are in Canada, Chile, China, Germany, Spain, Ireland, and the United Kingdom, competing against Compass Group, Sodexo, Elior, and ISS.
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Aramark's pricing flexibility is structurally constrained by its contract portfolio: roughly two-thirds of fiscal 2025 revenue came from profit-and-loss contracts where client consent may be required before price increases. The 250,830 frontline or hourly workers are subject to federal, state, and international minimum-wage laws, and the 10-K notes that when minimum-wage rates increase the company may have to raise wages for both minimum-wage employees and those above the minimum — a cost that can only partially be offset through contractual pricing mechanisms or vendor rebate negotiations given the terms of its client contracts.
See also: Industrials · Specialty Business Services
From Aramark's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — Aramark
Latest news
- NEWS BofA Securities Adjusts Aramark Price Target to $69 From $70 — fiscal.ai Oct 26, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Aramark Files Lawsuit Against UnitedHealth Group Over Claims Handling — fiscal.ai Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Aramark to Host Conference Call on Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2026 Results — fiscal.ai Oct 19, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Buy on Aramark, Raises Price Target to $75.5 — benzinga Oct 12, 2026 positive
- NEWS Here's How Much $1000 Invested In Aramark 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today — benzinga Oct 9, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:45Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States71%10-K Item 1: 'our FSS United States segment generated $13,211.9 million in revenue, or 71% of our total revenue'
- MEDIUMSupplierSysco43%10-K Item 1: 'Sysco distributed approximately 43% of our food and non-food products in the United States and Canada based on purchase dollars'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.02: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $53.20. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $61.68 (+10.1% upside). Prior stop was $53.20. Stop-loss: $53.20.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (71.0%); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).
Aramark trades at a P/E of 39.2 (forward 19.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover ARMK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $69.
What does Aramark do?Aramark provides food and facilities services to education, healthcare, business, and sports/leisure clients across 16...
Aramark provides food and facilities services to education, healthcare, business, and sports/leisure clients across 16 countries, generating $18.5 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue split $13.2 billion (71%) from FSS United States and $5.3 billion (29%) from FSS International. The company earns revenue under profit-and-loss and management-fee contracts, employing approximately 278,390 people.