Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.7 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 9.4 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.59
- ▸Attractively valued
ARLO · Why this verdict
Why Arlo Technologies (ARLO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.8 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 5.0 |
| Op margin | 2.4 |
| Net margin | 2.7 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 208% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.1 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 69%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $6,686,684 (0.481% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 8.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 2.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.3 |
| days to cover | 3.1 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.8 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 107%
- ▸Above max pain $6
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:5.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.82
Upside
+46.9%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.55>1.3, MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 9.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 5.82 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.1, Value at 7.7, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Insider at 3.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.82 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.