Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ARDX stock price target?

Take-profit $14.31 (+110.3% upside). Prior stop was $6.33.

Q: Is ARDX overvalued or undervalued?

Ardelyx, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ARDX?

18 analysts cover ARDX with a consensus score of 4.5/5. Average price target: $16.

Breakout setup

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-02

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.91: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 7.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality.

$6.91+110.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#29 of 158 Biotechnology

Stop $6.33Target $14.31(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 7.3:1

Analyst target$16.44+138.0%9 analysts

$14.31our TP

$6.91price

$16.44mean

$19

Passes 6/6 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)11.2

Mkt Cap$1.6B

EV/EBITDA-40.1

Profit Mgn-15.1%

ROE-36.2%

Rev Growth7.8%

Beta0.66

DividendNone

Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.12bullish

IV97%elevated

Max Pain$2-71.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.715%1.30

Quality3.715%0.56

Growth4.415%0.66

Momentum8.310%0.83

Sentiment7.710%0.77

Insider Activity4.610%0.46

Peer Rank3.910%0.39

Technical Setup3.85%0.19

Risk Profile4.45%0.22

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)5.75

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Unprofitable operations — net margin -15.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe

0.0

Roa

0.0

Net Margin

0.0

Operating Margin

1.6

Rule Of 40

3.0

Fcf Quality

3.3

Moat

5.0

Piotroski F

5.6

Current Ratio

8.7

Gross Margin

10.0

FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 2%, FCF yield 0.4%)No competitive moatRule of 40: 9 (fail)

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger

0.0

Support Resistance

1.3

52w Position

6.2

Gap

7.5

Extreme gap down (-5.2%) - potential reversal

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

3.5

Quality Rank

3.6

Value Rank

8.4

GatesMomentum 8.3>=5.5A.R:R 7.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

64 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $5.73Resistance $6.97

Price Targets

$14

A.Upside+107.1%

A.R:R7.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ARDX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.91: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 7.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $6.33. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARDX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.31 (+110.3% upside). Prior stop was $6.33. Stop-loss: $6.33.

What are the risks of investing in ARDX?

Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is ARDX overvalued or undervalued?

Ardelyx, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARDX?

18 analysts cover ARDX with a consensus score of 4.5/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Ardelyx, Inc. do?Ardelyx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines to treat unmet medical needs in the United States and...

Ardelyx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines to treat unmet medical needs in the United States and internationally. The company offers IBSRELA, a minimally absorbed small molecule therapy for the treatment of patients with irritable bowel syndrome with constipation; and XPHOZAH, a phosphate absorption inhibitor to reduce serum phosphorus in adults with chronic kidney disease on dialysis. Ardelyx, Inc. was formerly known as Nteryx, Inc. and changed its name to Ardelyx, Inc. in June 2008. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.