Skip to main content
APOGApogee Enterprises, Inc.Sell5.2·$38.30-1.72%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

APOG combines a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with an attractive valuation, but declining revenue, a lagging quality profile, and stalled momentum after already reaching its price target keep the setup mixed.

Thesis pillars

  • Beat Streak Attractive ValuationStable
  • Declining Revenue GrowthStable
  • No Competitive MoatStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellValueModerate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.30 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

We are a leading provider of architectural building products and services, as well as high-performance coated materials used in a variety of applications.

$38.30+30.4% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#15 of 26 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield12.35%
IncomeYield2.66%(5y avg 2.05%)Payout33.23%sustainable
Stop $36.28Target $49.86(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$44.00+14.9%2 analysts
$49.86our TP
$38.30price
$44.00mean
$50

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.30 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 92d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 8, 202692d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings estimates trending DOWN
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.5
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$830M
EV/EBITDA6.7
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE13.8%
Rev Growth-1.1%
Beta1.12
Dividend2.66%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.25bearish
IV76%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-29Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Item 9.01 | Financial Statements and Exhibits. 104 | Cover Page interactive Data file (embedded within the Inline XBRL document).
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Name | Position | Number of Shares of Restricted Stock Awarded | Fully Vested Date | | | Mark R. Augdahl | Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer | 11,630 | April 30, 2029 Brent C. Jewell | President, Architectural Glass Segment | 8,067 | April 30, 2029 | | | Matthew S.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

Revenue shrinking — -1.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 92d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.40Resistance $50.88

Price Targets

$36
$50
A.Upside+30.2%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.2% upside)
! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-08 (92d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APOG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.30 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $36.28. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APOG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $49.86 (+30.4% upside). Prior stop was $36.28. Stop-loss: $36.28.

What are the risks of investing in APOG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Weak growth.

Is APOG overvalued or undervalued?

Apogee Enterprises, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.5 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about APOG?

8 analysts cover APOG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Apogee Enterprises, Inc. do?We are a leading provider of architectural building products and services, as well as high-performance coated materials...

We are a leading provider of architectural building products and services, as well as high-performance coated materials used in a variety of applications.

Related stocks: AWI (Armstrong World Industries Inc) · ARLO (Arlo Technologies, Inc.) · JBI (Janus International Group, Inc.) · ROCK (Gibraltar Industries, Inc.) · NPKI (NPK International Inc.)
Home Stocks APOG

Latest news

No recent news