ADT trades at a significant discount to earnings — forward price-to-earnings of 6.9x, PEG of 0.26, and free cash flow converting at 158% of net income — with a four-quarter earnings beat streak, yet the favorable valuation is weighed against a confirmed technical downtrend, elevated financial leverage at a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.0, and an unusually high put/call ratio of 5.72 suggesting the options market is pricing in meaningful downside risk.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Low Multiple↓Deteriorating
- Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026
ADT Inc. (ADT) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Wait for pullback to $9.53. Price sits above the model's entry target of $9.53; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.3% away).
ADT provides security monitoring, smart home automation, and interactive services to residential and small business customers in the United States, operating under a brand established in 1874. Revenue is earned primarily from recurring monthly monitoring fees across... Read more
Wait for pullback to $9.53. Price sits above the model's entry target of $9.53; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.3% away). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 93. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About ADT Inc.
About ADT Inc.
ADT's nationwide security monitoring infrastructure served 6.1 million U.S. residential and small business subscribers at December 31, 2025, operating through six fully redundant monitoring centers with no material revenue outside the United States. The company's ADT+ application completed a phased national rollout through 2025, integrating professionally installed and DIY monitoring, smart home automation, and AI-assisted alarm verification.
ADT earns revenue primarily through recurring monthly monitoring fees under standard two-, three-, and five-year contracts with automatic renewals, with more than 80% of residential customers paying via automated methods. The company typically achieves revenue break-even on a new subscriber installation in roughly two years, reflecting upfront installation labor, commissions, and equipment costs. Approximately 140 authorized dealers generate a portion of new subscriber accounts under three-year dealer contracts, and ADT also reaches customers through direct channels, retail, and e-commerce. The partnership with Google includes a Master Supply, Distribution, and Marketing Agreement running through November 15, 2030, and a $200 million commitment to Google Cloud Platform services over seven years through December 2030. In February 2026, ADT acquired Origin AI for $170 million cash to add AI-enabled ambient sensing to its security platform.
Show full overview
Much of ADT's end-user hardware — cameras, alarm panels, and smart home devices — is manufactured in China and Mexico, and the 10-K notes that existing or new tariffs on such imports may harm business results. This supply chain exposure sits alongside technological risk: the retirement of older telecommunications technologies or limitations on customers' broadband options could require significant capital expenditures and accelerate subscriber attrition. The company has also committed to $200 million of Google Cloud Platform purchases over seven years through December 2030, concentrating cloud infrastructure spending with a single provider.
See also: Industrials · Security & Protection Services
From ADT Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — ADT Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS ADT (ADT) Reports Q2: Everything You Need To Know Ahead Of Earnings - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS ADT (ADT) Reports Q2: Everything You Need To Know Ahead Of Earnings - FinancialContent — FinancialContent neutral
- NEWS ADT Could Go Private as Thrive Capital Explores Deal - Security Info Watch — Security Info Watch positive
- NEWS ADT jumps on report Thrive Capital in talks to buy (update) (ADT:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS ADT Inc. (ADT) Shares Jump 9% Amid Thrive Capital Buyout Talks - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-10-30T10:27:53Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierChina, Mexico equipment manufacturing10-K Item 1A: 'imports from China, Mexico, or other countries where much of our end-user equipment is manufactured'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOWThree Apollo-designated directors — Reed B. Rayman, Nicole Bonsignore, and Benjamin Honig — resigned May 5, 2026, in connection with Apollo selling all remaining Common Stock. No disagreement with company cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $9.53. Price sits above the model's entry target of $9.53; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.3% away). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 93. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $7.07 reached (−28.3%), stop $8.86 (−11.4%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $7.07 reached (−28.3% from $9.87); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $7.07 reached (−28.3%), stop $8.86 (−11.4%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Stop-loss: $8.86.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.3% away); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
ADT Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.5 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
11 analysts cover ADT with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $8.
What does ADT Inc. do?ADT provides security monitoring, smart home automation, and interactive services to residential and small business...
ADT provides security monitoring, smart home automation, and interactive services to residential and small business customers in the United States, operating under a brand established in 1874. Revenue is earned primarily from recurring monthly monitoring fees across approximately 6.1 million subscribers as of December 31, 2025, with standard multi-year contracts and automated billing for over 80% of residential customers.