Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $76.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance protecting holders of public finance and structured finance debt against non-payment of scheduled principal and interest, with principal markets in the U.S. and U.K. Revenue comes from guarantee premiums... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $76.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Assured Guaranty Ltd.
About Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Assured Guaranty Ltd., a Bermuda-based holding company, provides unconditional and irrevocable financial guaranty insurance across U.S. and non-U.S. public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets. In January 2026, the company completed the acquisition of Warwick Company (UK) Limited — the indirect owner of Assured Life Re — for $158 million, establishing its first life and annuity reinsurance platform focused on U.K. bulk purchase annuity and U.S. multi-year guaranteed annuity transactions. The guaranteed portfolio spans obligations with maturities that, in some cases, exceed 30 years, with no contractual right to cancel.
Assured Guaranty earns premium income from financial guaranty insurance written primarily on U.S. public finance obligations — including general obligation bonds, tax-backed bonds, municipal utility bonds, transportation bonds, healthcare bonds, and infrastructure bonds — and selectively on non-U.S. public finance and structured finance. The majority of the company's non-U.S. regulated utility and infrastructure business is conducted in the U.K., while the majority of its non-U.S. renewable energy exposure is concentrated in Spain. The company also participates in asset management through Sound Point Capital Management, LP, which manages alternative investments for the insurance subsidiaries. Demand for financial guaranty insurance fluctuates with credit spreads: narrower spreads reduce the interest cost savings that insurance provides to issuers, directly reducing new-business volume. The company also writes specialty business including diversified real estate, insurance reserve financings, and aircraft residual value insurance transactions.
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Assured Guaranty faces a structural tension between the long-dated nature of its guarantee obligations — the 10-K notes policies can run "in some cases over 30 years" with no right to cancel — and the inherent difficulty of estimating long-term credit losses on public finance issuers that may face budget deficits, pension shortfalls, or post-PROMESA restructuring. In March 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K that Chief Credit Officer Stephen Donnarumma, who served in that role since 2007, notified Assured Guaranty of his retirement effective September 30, 2026; he will serve as senior advisor to the CEO through April 2, 2027, providing a transition period for the credit underwriting function at a time of portfolio expansion into annuity reinsurance.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
From Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-13Recent Developments — Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Latest news
- NEWS Another sell-off for AI stocks knocks Wall Street back to where it was 5 weeks ago - Los Angeles Times — Los Angeles Times negative
- NEWS Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Climbs 2%, Approaching Key Resistance at $80.7 - Up Down Ratio - newsline.com — newsline.com positive
- NEWS Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH Sells 39,108 Shares of Assured Guaranty Ltd. $AGO - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Assured Guaranty Earnings: What To Look For From AGO - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Assured Guaranty Earnings: What To Look For From AGO - FinancialContent — FinancialContent neutral
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -6.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $76.46, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $78.48 (+2.6%), stop $73.54 (−4.0%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $78.48 (+2.6% upside). Target $78.48 (+2.6%), stop $73.54 (−4.0%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $73.54.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. trades at a P/E of 8.7 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
8 analysts cover AGO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $92.
What does Assured Guaranty Ltd. do?Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance protecting holders of public finance and...
Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance protecting holders of public finance and structured finance debt against non-payment of scheduled principal and interest, with principal markets in the U.S. and U.K. Revenue comes from guarantee premiums paid by bond issuers and investors; the company also participates in asset management through its ownership interest in Sound Point Capital Management, LP.