An attractively valued specialty insurer with three consecutive large earnings beats and upward-trending estimates has a compelling catalyst profile, but a death cross, declining revenue, and weak free cash flow conversion materially limit the investability of the setup at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Consecutive Earnings Beats↓Deteriorating
- Attractive Forward Valuation→Stable
- Free Cash Flow Conversion Concern→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $69.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Earnings in 7 days (event risk).
Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance protecting holders of public finance and structured finance debt against non-payment of scheduled principal and interest, with principal markets in the U.S. and U.K. Revenue comes from guarantee premiums... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $69.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Assured Guaranty Ltd.
About Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Assured Guaranty Ltd., a Bermuda-based holding company, provides unconditional and irrevocable financial guaranty insurance across U.S. and non-U.S. public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets. In January 2026, the company completed the acquisition of Warwick Company (UK) Limited — the indirect owner of Assured Life Re — for $158 million, establishing its first life and annuity reinsurance platform focused on U.K. bulk purchase annuity and U.S. multi-year guaranteed annuity transactions. The guaranteed portfolio spans obligations with maturities that, in some cases, exceed 30 years, with no contractual right to cancel.
Assured Guaranty earns premium income from financial guaranty insurance written primarily on U.S. public finance obligations — including general obligation bonds, tax-backed bonds, municipal utility bonds, transportation bonds, healthcare bonds, and infrastructure bonds — and selectively on non-U.S. public finance and structured finance. The majority of the company's non-U.S. regulated utility and infrastructure business is conducted in the U.K., while the majority of its non-U.S. renewable energy exposure is concentrated in Spain. The company also participates in asset management through Sound Point Capital Management, LP, which manages alternative investments for the insurance subsidiaries. Demand for financial guaranty insurance fluctuates with credit spreads: narrower spreads reduce the interest cost savings that insurance provides to issuers, directly reducing new-business volume. The company also writes specialty business including diversified real estate, insurance reserve financings, and aircraft residual value insurance transactions.
Show full overview
Assured Guaranty faces a structural tension between the long-dated nature of its guarantee obligations — the 10-K notes policies can run "in some cases over 30 years" with no right to cancel — and the inherent difficulty of estimating long-term credit losses on public finance issuers that may face budget deficits, pension shortfalls, or post-PROMESA restructuring. In March 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K that Chief Credit Officer Stephen Donnarumma, who served in that role since 2007, notified Assured Guaranty of his retirement effective September 30, 2026; he will serve as senior advisor to the CEO through April 2, 2027, providing a transition period for the credit underwriting function at a time of portfolio expansion into annuity reinsurance.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
From Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Latest news
- NEWS AGO|Assured Guaranty Ltd|Price:84.260|Chg%:-0.070 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS AGO|Assured Guaranty Ltd|Price:84.260|Chg%:-0.070 - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com neutral
- NEWS Another sell-off for AI stocks knocks Wall Street back to where it was 5 weeks ago - Los Angeles Times — Los Angeles Times negative
- NEWS Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Climbs 2%, Approaching Key Resistance at $80.7 - Up Down Ratio - newsline.com — newsline.com positive
- NEWS Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH Sells 39,108 Shares of Assured Guaranty Ltd. $AGO - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:30Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
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Quality Signals
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -0.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $69.32 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Prior stop was $66.76. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $77.35 (+11.6% upside). Prior stop was $66.76. Stop-loss: $66.76.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. trades at a P/E of 9.2 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover AGO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $91.
What does Assured Guaranty Ltd. do?Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance protecting holders of public finance and...
Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance protecting holders of public finance and structured finance debt against non-payment of scheduled principal and interest, with principal markets in the U.S. and U.K. Revenue comes from guarantee premiums paid by bond issuers and investors; the company also participates in asset management through its ownership interest in Sound Point Capital Management, LP.