Value
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸Attractively valued
AGO · Why this verdict
Why Assured Guaranty (AGO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 9.7 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.9 |
| FCF quality | 3.6 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 51%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 45% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 16 (fail)
Growth
0.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -6%
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 6.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $17,999,302 (0.538% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.5 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| put call | 7.3 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $55
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 201.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.83
Upside
+4.2%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.83 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Catalyst at 7.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 0.5, Peer rank at 2.8, and Insider at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.