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AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.97 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS.

AGNC Investment is an internally managed mortgage REIT investing primarily in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) on a leveraged basis, with principal and interest guaranteed by GSEs or the U.S. government. It generates income from net interest margin between... Read more

$10.97-1.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#16 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
Stop $10.56Target $10.85(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$11.44+4.3%9 analysts
$10.85our TP
$10.97price
$11.44mean
$10
$13

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.97 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Margin of safety: 43%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.6
P/E (Fwd)7.3
Mkt Cap$12.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn91.7%
ROE13.2%
Rev Growth
Beta1.36
Dividend13.07%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV51%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductAgency RMBS
    10-K Item 1A: 'As a levered investor primarily in fixed-rate Agency RMBS, spread risk is an inherent component of our business.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.5<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $9.94Resistance $11.07

Price Targets

$11
$11
A.Upside-1.1%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.2% upside)
! Momentum score 4.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGNC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.97 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $10.56. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGNC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.85 (-1.0% upside). Prior stop was $10.56. Stop-loss: $10.56.

What are the risks of investing in AGNC?

Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is AGNC overvalued or undervalued?

AGNC Investment Corp. trades at a P/E of 8.6 (forward 7.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGNC?

20 analysts cover AGNC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $11.

What does AGNC Investment Corp. do?AGNC Investment is an internally managed mortgage REIT investing primarily in Agency residential mortgage-backed...

AGNC Investment is an internally managed mortgage REIT investing primarily in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) on a leveraged basis, with principal and interest guaranteed by GSEs or the U.S. government. It generates income from net interest margin between RMBS yields and borrowing/hedging costs, targeting 6-10x leverage.

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