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AFYAAfya LimitedBuy Wait6.0·$10.24
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Afya trades at a notably low forward P/E of 6.9x with a near-perfect Piotroski score and three beats in the last four quarters, but soft revenue growth and a momentum profile that has yet to recover above the long-term average require patience at entry.

Thesis pillars

  • Momentum Below Entry Threshold↓Deteriorating
  • High Quality Franchise Margins→Stable
  • Deeply Discounted Valuation↑Improving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Afya Limited (AFYA) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup · Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitValueQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services

Wait for pullback to $9.68. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $10.24. Engine's entry $9.68 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA.

Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate, Continuing Education, and Medical Practice Solutions. The Undergraduate segment offers educational services through undergraduate courses related to medical... Read more

$10.24+41.5% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#6 of 14 Education & Training Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield42.67%
IncomeYield6.42%Payout41.31%sustainable
Entry $9.68(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $9.00Target $14.49(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst consensus$16.65+62.6%8 analysts
$14.49our TP
$10.24price
$16.65mean
$19

Wait for pullback to $9.68. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $10.24. Engine's entry $9.68 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Deep value: 66% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | Falling knife (FK=6.5): wait for stabilization. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 202614d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.6 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
High-quality business
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-day MA
Falling knife score: 6.5/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.2
P/E (Fwd)5.1
Mkt Cap$906M
EV/EBITDA2.1
Profit Mgn20.4%
ROE16.7%
Rev Growth5.7%
Beta0.37
Dividend6.42%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV286%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Vol Acceleration
2.9
Rsi
3.0
Volume
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flatVolume surge (2.1x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
24 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.02Resistance $15.25

Price Targets

$9
$10
$14
A.Upside+41.5%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1%
Max %2%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AFYA stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $9.68. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $10.24. Engine's entry $9.68 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Deep value: 66% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | Falling knife (FK=6.5): wait for stabilization. Target $14.49 (+41.5%), stop $9.00 (−13.8%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AFYA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.49 (+41.5% upside). Target $14.49 (+41.5%), stop $9.00 (−13.8%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $9.00.

What are the risks of investing in AFYA?

Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA; Falling knife score: 6.5/10.

Is AFYA overvalued or undervalued?

Afya Limited trades at a P/E of 6.2 (forward 5.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AFYA?

12 analysts cover AFYA with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Afya Limited do?Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate,...

Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate, Continuing Education, and Medical Practice Solutions. The Undergraduate segment offers educational services through undergraduate courses related to medical school, health sciences, and other non-health undergraduate programs, including medicine, dentistry, nursing, radiology, psychology, pharmacy, physical education, physiotherapy, nutrition, biomedicine, business administration, accounting, law, civil and industrial engineering, and pedagogy. The Continuing Education segment provides medical education, including residency preparation programs, specialization test preparation, graduate courses in medicine, and digital and in-person professional development for physicians and medical students. The Medical Practice Solutions segment offers clinical decision support platforms, medical practice management software, healthcare financial services, and digital healthcare ecosystem solutions, such as electronic medical records, practice management tools, telemedicine, digital prescriptions, and doctor-patient relationship platforms. This segment also provides a subscription-based mobile app and website portal that focuses on assisting health professionals and students with clinical decision-making through tools, such as medical calculators, charts, and updated content, as well as prescriptions, clinical scores, medical procedures and laboratory exams, and others. The company also offers educational health and medical imaging; and other programs to lifelong medical learners enrolled across its distribution network, as well as to third-party medical schools. In addition, it offers printed and digital content, as well as an online medical education platform and physicians, healthcare professionals and students. Afya Limited was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

Related stocks: COUR (Coursera, Inc.) · PXED (Phoenix Education Partners, Inc) · LAUR (Laureate Education, Inc.) · CVSA (Covista Inc.) · LOPE (Grand Canyon Education, Inc.)
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