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TOIThe Oncology Institute, Inc.Sell6.4·$5.65-2.59%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The Oncology Institute shows strong revenue growth and a recent earnings-beat streak, but weak business quality, cash-burning free cash flow, and value-trap warning signals raise doubts about the durability of the growth story.

Thesis pillars

  • Value Trap Warning SignalsStable
  • Strong Topline GrowthStable
  • Cash Burning Quality ConcernsStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.65: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

The Oncology Institute (TOI) delivers value-based and fee-for-service oncology care through affiliated professional corporations operating 65 owned clinics, 81 independently owned MSO-contracted clinics, and a network of 198 independent providers across 17 markets in five... Read more

$5.65+16.6% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#4 of 36 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-2.82%
Stop $5.25Target $6.59(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$7.75+37.2%4 analysts
$6.59our TP
$5.65price
$7.75mean
$8

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.65: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About The Oncology Institute, Inc.

About The Oncology Institute, Inc.

The Oncology Institute manages approximately 2.0 million patients under value-based agreements as of December 31, 2025, generating more than 46% of that year's revenue from value-based and capitated contracts rather than traditional fee-for-service billing. The company operates through 65 affiliated clinics (the TOI PCs), 81 independently owned clinics contracted with its managed services organization, and a network of 198 independent providers spanning 17 markets across California, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Oregon.

TOI earns revenue across four lines: fee-for-service medical oncology and infusion billed on a CPT-code and cost-plus drug basis; value-based and capitated contracts that pay a fixed per-member-per-month amount and let TOI keep the difference if care costs less, including a full delegation model where TOI also performs utilization management and claims adjudication; specialty pharmacy filling oral, IV, and injectable medications reimbursed by pharmacy benefit managers on a WAC-minus basis; and clinical trial services billed to pharmaceutical companies and contract research organizations. The company's payor relationships span Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, and commercial plans, with named counterparties including Anthem, CareMore Health, Heritage Provider Network, and Optum Care. A significant portion of Patient Services revenue depends on a limited number of health insurance, IPA, and medical group payors, while prescription drug sales rely on a number of contracted pharmacy benefit management companies.

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TOI's value-based model concentrates financial risk on cost prediction rather than volume: under capitation and full-delegation agreements, the TOI PCs assume the risk that oncology treatment costs exceed the fixed per-member payment, and the 10-K states that approximately 16% of 2025 revenue came specifically from these fixed capitation fees. Because a significant share of Patient Services revenue flows through a limited number of health insurers, IPAs, and medical group companies, the loss of even one of the named counterparties, such as Anthem or Optum Care, from the TOI PCs' provider networks could disproportionately affect revenue relative to a more fragmented payor base.

See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

From The Oncology Institute, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-08

Recent Developments — The Oncology Institute, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-08T21:03:53Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 10, 202634d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-34.0
Mkt Cap$544M
EV/EBITDA-23.9
Profit Mgn-8.0%
ROE
Rev Growth41.2%
Beta0.39
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV97%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductvalue-based contracts revenue46%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, we generated more than 46% of our revenue from patients who are covered by value-based contracts.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of health insurance, IPA and medical group companies
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our consolidated Patient Services revenue is derived from a limited number of health insurance, Independent Practice Associations, or IPAs and medical group companies.'
  • MEDIUMCustomera number of pharmacy benefit management companies
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of sales are from prescription drug sales reimbursed by a number of pharmacy benefit management companies with which TOI PCs contract.'
  • MEDIUMGeographiccertain geographic areas
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our services are concentrated in certain geographic areas and populations exposing us to unfavorable changes in local benefit costs, reimbursement rates, competition and economic conditions.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -8.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Current Ratio
5.4
Moat
5.5
Cash-burning: FCF -3% of revenueWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns
GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.56Resistance $5.96

Price Targets

$5
$7
A.Upside+16.6%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TOI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.65: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $5.25. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TOI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.59 (+16.6% upside). Prior stop was $5.25. Stop-loss: $5.25.

What are the risks of investing in TOI?

Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is TOI overvalued or undervalued?

The Oncology Institute, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -34.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TOI?

8 analysts cover TOI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $8.

What does The Oncology Institute, Inc. do?The Oncology Institute (TOI) delivers value-based and fee-for-service oncology care through affiliated professional...

The Oncology Institute (TOI) delivers value-based and fee-for-service oncology care through affiliated professional corporations operating 65 owned clinics, 81 independently owned MSO-contracted clinics, and a network of 198 independent providers across 17 markets in five states. TOI managed approximately 2.0 million patients under value-based agreements as of December 31, 2025, generating more than 46% of 2025 revenue from value-based and capitated contracts with payors including Anthem, CareMore Health, Heritage Provider Network, and Optum Care.

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