Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.4 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 7.8 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.86
- ▸Attractively valued
ADUS · Why this verdict
Why Addus HomeCare (ADUS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 5.4 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $63,163 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 7.3 |
| 52w position | 4.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:57d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.33
Upside
+25.3%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.33 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Sentiment at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Peer rank at 3.6, and Growth at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.