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ADPTAdaptive Biotechnologies CorporSell5.4·$17.74-5.29%
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Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor (ADPT) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.74: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Adaptive Biotechnologies develops the clonoSEQ test — FDA-authorized for MRD detection in multiple myeloma, ALL, and CLL — and an immune medicine platform for TCR-antigen research. Revenue of $277.0 million in 2025 was driven primarily by MRD testing ($212.3 million), with the... Read more

$17.74+8.7% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#13 of 26 Diagnostics & Research
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield0.57%
Stop $16.37Target $19.13(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1
Analyst target$20.14+13.5%7 analysts
$19.13our TP
$17.74price
$20.14mean
$22

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.74: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor

About Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor

Adaptive Biotechnologies generated $277.0 million in total revenue in 2025 — up from $179.0 million in 2024 — with the MRD business contributing $212.3 million on test volume of 105,587 tests delivered, a 39% year-over-year increase. The FDA authorized clonoSEQ for multiple myeloma and B-cell ALL in September 2018 and expanded the label to CLL in August 2020. Payor coverage reached over 300 million lives for ALL and MM indications by year-end 2025.

Adaptive Biotechnologies earns revenue through two primary channels: clonoSEQ clinical diagnostic testing for physicians, billed per test to commercial and government payors, and MRD Pharma services for biopharmaceutical partners. The clonoSEQ assay was used in more than 180 active trials by over 40 biopharmaceutical partners, including more than 100 trials where MRD is a clinical endpoint. The immune medicine segment generates additional revenue through immune-receptor sequencing, data licensing, and TCR-antigen prediction tools; in December 2025, the company entered two non-exclusive data agreements with Pfizer for TCR discovery in rheumatoid arthritis and broader immunology applications. The company had an accumulated deficit of $1.4 billion as of December 31, 2025, and net cash used in operations was $46.0 million in 2025, down 52% from $95.2 million in 2024.

Show full overview

Adaptive Biotechnologies' laboratory operations depend entirely on Illumina for sequencing instruments, reagents, and servicing. The 10-K discloses that Illumina is the sole provider of maintenance and repair services for the Illumina NextSeq System and the NovaSeq X Plus — platforms for which Illumina's reagents are designed exclusively and are not interchangeable with other vendors. Illumina is not contractually obligated to meet all of the company's reagent requirements, and transitioning to an alternative sequencer would require revalidating clonoSEQ diagnostic services and potentially obtaining additional FDA clearance, adding operational and regulatory risk to a business that processed over 105,000 tests in 2025.

See also: Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

From Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: clonoSEQ
Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina
Target reached (-0.4% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-69.6
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA-94.5
Profit Mgn-16.8%
ROE-24.0%
Rev Growth35.1%
Beta2.15
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish
IV127%elevated
Max Pain$20+12.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductclonoSEQ
    10-K Item 1: 'Total MRD revenue in 2025 was $212.3 million ... clonoSEQ test volume to 105,587 tests'
  • HIGHSupplierIllumina
    10-K Item 1A: 'Illumina is the sole provider of maintenance and repair services for the Illumina NextSeq System and the NovaSeq X Plus System'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.8
Value Rank
2.3
Growth Rank
8.1
Industry growth leader

Unprofitable operations — net margin -16.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
4.1
Piotroski F
4.4
Gross Margin
4.7
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
9.6
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 5%, FCF yield 0.6%)No competitive moat

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
3.8
Analyst Target
4.0
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
2.0
Support Resistance
2.7
Gap
4.0
52w Position
7.0
GatesA.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 8.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.50Resistance $19.52

Price Targets

$16
$19
A.Upside+7.8%
A.R:R-0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.74: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $16.37. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.13 (+8.7% upside). Prior stop was $16.37. Stop-loss: $16.37.

What are the risks of investing in ADPT?

Concentration risk — Product: clonoSEQ; Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina; Target reached (-0.4% upside).

Is ADPT overvalued or undervalued?

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -69.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADPT?

14 analysts cover ADPT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor do?Adaptive Biotechnologies develops the clonoSEQ test — FDA-authorized for MRD detection in multiple myeloma, ALL, and...

Adaptive Biotechnologies develops the clonoSEQ test — FDA-authorized for MRD detection in multiple myeloma, ALL, and CLL — and an immune medicine platform for TCR-antigen research. Revenue of $277.0 million in 2025 was driven primarily by MRD testing ($212.3 million), with the remainder from biopharma partnerships.

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