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Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor (ADPT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina; Negative momentum.

Adaptive Biotechnologies develops clonoSEQ, the FDA-authorized MRD diagnostic test for lymphoid cancers, plus an IM business licensing immune receptor data to biopharma partners. Total revenue was $277M in 2025, driven by 105,587 clonoSEQ tests (46% growth) and 180+ active... Read more

$14.18+27.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#27 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $13.11Target $17.90(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$20.57+45.1%7 analysts
$17.90our TP
$14.18price
$20.57mean
$22

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-52.5
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA-55.0
Profit Mgn-21.5%
ROE-27.8%
Rev Growth51.0%
Beta2.30
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV113%elevated
Max Pain$3-82.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierIllumina
    10-K Item 1A: 'Illumina supplies us with reagents that have been designed for use solely with these sequencers and Illumina is the sole provider of maintenance and repair services for the Illumina NextSeq System and the NovaSeq X Plus System.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
5.2
Macd
6.3
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.36Resistance $15.61

Price Targets

$13
$18
A.Upside+26.2%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADPT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $17.90 (+26.2%), stop $13.11 (−8.2%), A.R:R 2.2:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.90 (+27.0% upside). Target $17.90 (+26.2%), stop $13.11 (−8.2%), A.R:R 2.2:1. Stop-loss: $13.11.

What are the risks of investing in ADPT?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina; Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Is ADPT overvalued or undervalued?

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -52.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ADPT?

14 analysts cover ADPT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor do?Adaptive Biotechnologies develops clonoSEQ, the FDA-authorized MRD diagnostic test for lymphoid cancers, plus an IM...

Adaptive Biotechnologies develops clonoSEQ, the FDA-authorized MRD diagnostic test for lymphoid cancers, plus an IM business licensing immune receptor data to biopharma partners. Total revenue was $277M in 2025, driven by 105,587 clonoSEQ tests (46% growth) and 180+ active biopharma trials. Illumina is the sole provider of sequencers, reagents, and maintenance services for its lab operations.

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