CareDx combines strong revenue growth and a Rule of 40 pass backed by positive free cash flow, but notable insider selling, an overbought momentum reading, and a below-floor risk score flagged by the engine argue for a cautious stance despite the growth story.
Thesis pillars
- Rule Of 40 Pass With Positive Fcf→Stable
- Strong Revenue Growth Profile→Stable
- Notable Insider Selling Pressure→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
Wait for pullback to $63.43. Price sits above the model's entry target of $63.43; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: AlloSure/AlloMap/HeartCare transplant tests; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
CareDx, Inc. is a precision medicine company providing molecular diagnostic testing, laboratory products, and digital health solutions for heart, kidney, and lung transplant patients, headquartered in Brisbane, California with operations in Omaha and Stockholm. The company's... Read more
Wait for pullback to $63.43. Price sits above the model's entry target of $63.43; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: AlloSure/AlloMap/HeartCare transplant tests; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About CareDx, Inc.
About CareDx, Inc.
CareDx generated approximately 200,000 commercial transplant-surveillance tests in 2025 from its single Brisbane, California laboratory, with Medicare reimbursement making up 46% of testing services revenue that year, down from 53% in 2023. The company's approved test menu — AlloSure Kidney, AlloMap Heart, AlloSure Heart, HeartCare, and AlloSure Lung — targets non-invasive detection of transplant organ rejection, and substantially all revenue comes from the United States and Europe, with primary operations also in Omaha, Nebraska and Stockholm, Sweden.
CareDx earns testing-services revenue per surveillance test ordered by transplant centers, reimbursed primarily through Medicare's Clinical Laboratory Fee Schedule — AlloSure Kidney's rate was reset to $2,753 effective January 1, 2026 after CMS cross-walked its billing code — supplemented by laboratory-product sales (QTYPE, Olerup SSP, AlloSeq) and digital and patient-solutions software such as Ottr and TxAccess used across more than 170 transplant centers. The company's strategy concentrates commercially on a limited set of transplant centers, cross-selling additional solutions into the same institutions to lower acquisition costs, and its research pipeline extends into adjacent areas under the TRANSPLANT+ initiative, including AlloHeme for post-transplant leukemia relapse monitoring and AlloCell for cell-therapy engraftment tracking. CareDx reported a $21.4 million net loss in 2025 (versus $52.5 million of net income in 2024) against a $735.4 million accumulated deficit, and Medicare's local coverage determination for its core tests remains under a pending proposed revision that could introduce new utilization limits.
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CareDx's near-term reimbursement exposure is concentrated in a single payer and a single pending regulatory process: Medicare supplied 46% of 2025 testing-services revenue, and MolDX/Noridian's July 2025 proposed revision to the foundational Local Coverage Determination governing AlloSure and AlloMap could introduce new coverage criteria, utilization limits, or a bundled-payment structure within its 365-day review window. Because Medicare coverage is also contingent on tests being performed in CareDx's California laboratory, a change in Medicare Administrative Contractor or an adverse LCD outcome would pressure the same revenue base twice — through both reimbursement rate and site-of-service eligibility — rather than through an isolated pricing change.
See also: Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
From CareDx, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — CareDx, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS CareDx Inc (CDNA) Financial Health: Profitability & Balance Sheet Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS CareDx Inc (CDNA) Risk Assessment: Volatility, Financial Risk & Investment Risk - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS CareDx Inc (CDNA) Institutional Confidence - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS CareDx (CDNA) Showcased AlloSure Kidney Data, Is The Stock Fully Priced? - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street neutral
- NEWS Is CareDx (CDNA) Fully Valued After Its Medicare Coverage Win? - Sahm — Sahm positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMregulatoryMedicare46%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 46%, 50% and 53% of all testing services revenue was derived from Medicare for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
- HIGHProductAlloSure/AlloMap/HeartCare transplant tests10-K Item 1A: 'Our financial results currently are largely dependent on sales of AlloSure Kidney, AlloMap Heart, AlloSure Heart, HeartCare and AlloSure Lung tests and products'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-15Item 5.02LOWAt the June 11, 2026 Annual Meeting, stockholders approved an amendment to the 2024 Equity Incentive Plan increasing reserved shares by 1,600,000 (approximately 3.1% of shares outstanding), a change the Board had approved in April 2026 subject to stockholder approval.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-23Item 5.02MEDIUMThis Form 8-K/A supplements CareDx's disclosure that Keith Kennedy, previously Chief Operating Officer, was appointed Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer effective February 26, 2026. On April 20, 2026, the Compensation Committee approved a compensation adjustment recognizing his expanded CFO responsibilities.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $63.43. Price sits above the model's entry target of $63.43; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: AlloSure/AlloMap/HeartCare transplant tests; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $56.84 reached (−21.2%), stop $59.35 (−21.5%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $56.84 reached (−21.2% from $72.13); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $56.84 reached (−21.2%), stop $59.35 (−21.5%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Stop-loss: $59.35.
Concentration risk — Product: AlloSure/AlloMap/HeartCare transplant tests; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.8% away).
CareDx, Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.7 (forward 55.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
13 analysts cover CDNA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $65.
What does CareDx, Inc. do?CareDx, Inc. is a precision medicine company providing molecular diagnostic testing, laboratory products, and digital...
CareDx, Inc. is a precision medicine company providing molecular diagnostic testing, laboratory products, and digital health solutions for heart, kidney, and lung transplant patients, headquartered in Brisbane, California with operations in Omaha and Stockholm. The company's testing portfolio — AlloSure Kidney, AlloMap Heart, AlloSure Heart, HeartCare, and AlloSure Lung — performed roughly 200,000 commercial tests in 2025 from its single Brisbane laboratory, and Medicare accounted for 46% of testing services revenue that year, down from 53% in 2023.