Automatic Data Processing is a high-quality franchise with strong margins and consistent earnings delivery, but the stock has fully priced in its attributes — the technical trend has deteriorated to a confirmed downtrend, the reward-to-risk setup is unfavorable, and the price is within 3.3% of its upside target, leaving little reason to add.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Business Franchise→Stable
- Earnings Consistency Beat Streak↑Improving
- Confirmed Downtrend Death Cross↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Technology · Software - Application
Wait for pullback to $239.68. BUY gates pass at $261.52, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $239.68 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
ADP provides cloud-based HCM software and outsourcing — payroll, HR, benefits, and talent management — to over 1.1 million clients in 140+ countries and territories. Revenue comes from subscriptions across two segments: Employer Services and PEO (ADP TotalSource, 18,000+... Read more
Wait for pullback to $239.68. BUY gates pass at $261.52, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $239.68 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.80, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
About Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
ADP's payroll and HCM platform processed pay for over 42 million workers globally in fiscal 2025, spanning more than 1.1 million clients across 140 countries and territories. The company moved more than $3.3 trillion in client funds to employees, tax authorities, and payees during the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025. Two operating segments — Employer Services and the Professional Employer Organization business, ADP TotalSource — serve organizations from single-employee small businesses to large multinational enterprises.
ADP earns recurring subscription revenue from HCM platforms including RUN Powered by ADP (over 940,000 small businesses), ADP Workforce Now (over 90,000 mid-sized and large businesses), and Lyric HCM for large enterprises. The PEO segment co-employs worksite employees for more than 18,000 clients across all 50 U.S. states, generating revenue by assuming employer responsibilities including payroll tax filing and benefit administration for more than 750,000 worksite employees. Additional revenue flows from float income earned on client funds held in transit, retirement services for over 190,000 employer plans, and insurance services for over 260,000 small and mid-sized clients. ADP acquired WorkForce Software in October 2024 and Mexico-based PEI in February 2025 to expand workforce management and local payroll capabilities.
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ADP's regulatory posture spans more than 140 countries and creates meaningful compliance obligations. The company registered its prepaid card business as a provider of prepaid access and registered ADP Trust Bank and ADP Retirement Trust Services with the U.S. Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network under the Bank Secrecy Act of 1970 as amended by the USA PATRIOT Act of 2001. Data processing obligations under the EU General Data Protection Regulation, the California Privacy Rights Act, and the EU Artificial Intelligence Act apply to the company's expanding AI-based tools; any broadening of these regimes may increase costs or require modifications to service delivery.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Automatic Data Processing, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-30Recent Developments — Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS A Look at Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) After 3.5% Gain -- GF Value $305.75 vs Price $273.37 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS ADP Is a Dominant HR Solutions Provider - Morningstar — Morningstar positive
- NEWS Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) Stock Price Expected to Rise, BMO Capital Markets Analyst Says - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS ADP Stock Surges on Strong Q4 Earnings Beat, AI Tools Power Up Growth - Benzinga — Benzinga positive
- NEWS ADP stock gains after Q4 results wrap up strong FY2026; solid guidance introduced (ADP:NASDAQ) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
Generated 2026-07-30T22:23:46Z.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
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Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $239.68. BUY gates pass at $261.52, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $239.68 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $274.98 (+5.1%), stop $220.63 (−18.5%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $274.98 (-12.4% upside). Target $274.98 (+5.1%), stop $220.63 (−18.5%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $220.63.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.6 (forward 20.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
23 analysts cover ADP with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $257.
What does Automatic Data Processing, Inc. do?ADP provides cloud-based HCM software and outsourcing — payroll, HR, benefits, and talent management — to over 1.1...
ADP provides cloud-based HCM software and outsourcing — payroll, HR, benefits, and talent management — to over 1.1 million clients in 140+ countries and territories. Revenue comes from subscriptions across two segments: Employer Services and PEO (ADP TotalSource, 18,000+ clients). The company processed pay for 42 million workers and moved $3.3 trillion in client funds in fiscal 2025.