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VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals IncorporBuy Wait6.1·$452.33+1.67%
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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor (VRTX) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Wait for pullback to $437.11. At $452.33 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $437.11 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: CF medicines; Thin upside margin: 9.2%.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a global biotechnology company with approved medicines for cystic fibrosis (its CFTR modulators such as TRIKAFTA and ALYFTREK), sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia (the CRISPR gene-editing therapy CASGEVY), and acute pain... Read more

$452.33+12.1% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#26 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.46%
Entry $437.11(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $413.87Target $493.82(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.3:1Setup A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$548.69+21.3%29 analysts
$493.82our TP
$452.33price
$548.69mean
$330
$641

Wait for pullback to $437.11. At $452.33 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $437.11 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: CF medicines; Thin upside margin: 9.2%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor

About Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor

Vertex Pharmaceuticals commercializes five approved CF medicines — ALYFTREK, TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO, SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI, ORKAMBI, and KALYDECO — used by nearly three-quarters of approximately 97,000 people with cystic fibrosis in the U.S., Europe, Australia, and Canada, with an estimated 112,000 people with CF across all target markets. The portfolio also includes CASGEVY, a CRISPR/Cas9 gene-editing therapy for severe sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia, and JOURNAVX, a selective NaV1.8 acute-pain inhibitor approved by the FDA in January 2025.

The company sells primarily to a limited number of specialty pharmacy and specialty distributors globally, plus certain major U.S. wholesalers, with U.S. customers reselling to patients, healthcare providers, retail pharmacies, hospitals, or authorized treatment centers; ex-U.S. distribution runs through distributor arrangements, retail pharmacies, hospitals, and clinics, many government-owned. CF medicines dominate the revenue base — the 10-K states substantially all net product revenues have been derived from CF — with the medicines reimbursed or accessible in more than 60 countries across six continents. CASGEVY uses a multi-step ex-vivo manufacturing chain anchored on authorized treatment centers; 64 patients received infusions globally in 2025 and 147 had first cell collections. JOURNAVX recorded more than 550,000 prescriptions filled between U.S. launch in March 2025 and year-end 2025, with coverage extended to more than 200 million commercial and government lives plus Medicaid coverage in 21 states. The mid- and late-stage pipeline spans povetacicept (IgA nephropathy, primary membranous nephropathy), inaxaplin (APOL1-mediated kidney disease), suzetrigine (diabetic peripheral neuropathy), and zimislecel (type 1 diabetes).

Show full overview

Pricing-power transition is the dominant near-term policy lens for Vertex. The 10-K notes Colorado's Prescription Drug Affordability Board selected TRIKAFTA for an affordability review in August 2023; while it was later found ineligible for an upper payment limit, the company cannot predict whether future PDAB reviews will reach the same conclusion. The filing separately flags CMS's recently proposed GUARD Model imposing most-favored-nation pricing on U.S. prescription drug prices in government programs, alongside Inflation Reduction Act-driven Medicare negotiation pressure and march-in rights. In December 2024, the FDA required moving TRIKAFTA liver-injury information into a boxed warning, with similar language imposed on the ALYFTREK label — a safety label change that may impact acceptance if competing CFTR modulators emerge.

See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology

From Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor's most recent 10-K filing, extracted May 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: CF medicines
Thin upside margin: 9.2%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.4
P/E (Fwd)20.7
Mkt Cap$112.9B
EV/EBITDA21.6
Profit Mgn35.5%
ROE24.2%
Rev Growth7.8%
Beta0.31
DividendNone
Rating analysts40

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.05bearish
IV38%normal
Max Pain$230-49.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductCF medicines
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all our net product revenues have been derived from the sale of our CF medicines.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of specialty pharmacy and specialty distributors
    10-K Item 1: 'We sell our medicines primarily to a limited number of specialty pharmacy and specialty distributors globally, as well as to certain major wholesalers in the U.S.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-29Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Director Suketu Upadhyay informed the Board on April 28, 2026 he will not stand for re-election at the 2026 annual meeting, having been named forthcoming CFO of Incyte Corporation; decision cited scheduling conflicts with no disagreement on operations, policies or practices. Board intends to reduce to ten members.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-13Item 5.02LOW
    On March 27, 2026 the Board approved the Vertex 2026 Stock and Option Plan, replacing the 2013 Stock and Option Plan, subject to shareholder approval; the plan was approved by shareholders at the May 13, 2026 annual meeting. Routine compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.4
Bollinger
0.6
52w Position
7.8
GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $420.01Resistance $453.54

Price Targets

$414
$437
$494
A.Upside+9.2%
A.R:R1.3:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VRTX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $437.11. At $452.33 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $437.11 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: CF medicines; Thin upside margin: 9.2%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $493.82 (+9.2%), stop $413.87 (−9.3%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VRTX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $493.82 (+12.1% upside). Target $493.82 (+9.2%), stop $413.87 (−9.3%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $413.87.

What are the risks of investing in VRTX?

Concentration risk — Product: CF medicines; Thin upside margin: 9.2%.

Is VRTX overvalued or undervalued?

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor trades at a P/E of 26.4 (forward 20.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about VRTX?

40 analysts cover VRTX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $549.

What does Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor do?Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a global biotechnology company with approved medicines for cystic fibrosis (its CFTR...

Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a global biotechnology company with approved medicines for cystic fibrosis (its CFTR modulators such as TRIKAFTA and ALYFTREK), sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia (the CRISPR gene-editing therapy CASGEVY), and acute pain (JOURNAVX). Substantially all of its net product revenues come from its CF medicines, which are used by nearly three quarters of the roughly 97,000 people with CF across the U.S., Europe, Australia and Canada. It sells primarily to a limited number of specialty pharmacies, specialty distributors and major U.S. wholesalers,

Related stocks: INCY (Incyte Corporation) · ARGX (argenx SE) · ONC (BeOne Medicines Ltd.) · ALNY (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) · ASND (Ascendis Pharma A/S)
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