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UVSPUnivest Financial CorporationHold5.6·$43.19-1.14%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Univest Financial carries a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak and a technical breakout at an attractive valuation with strong margins, but the stock has already reached its price target with sharply negative asymmetry and notable insider selling.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Beat Streak CatalystStable
  • Attractive Valuation Strong MarginsStable
  • Technical Breakout SetupStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $43.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (5.0% away).

Univest Financial is the Pennsylvania-based holding company for Univest Bank and Trust Co., a state-chartered commercial bank serving individuals, businesses, and municipalities across 19 Pennsylvania counties plus parts of New Jersey and Maryland. At December 31, 2025, the... Read more

$43.19+3.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#167 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.08%(5y avg 3.22%)Payout26.51%sustainable
Stop $40.95Target $44.54(resistance)A.R:R -2.8:1
Analyst target$40.00-7.4%3 analysts
Range unavailable (3 analysts)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $43.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (5.0% away). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Univest Financial Corporation

About Univest Financial Corporation

Univest Financial held $8.4 billion in total assets, $6.8 billion in net loans and leases, and $7.1 billion in deposits at December 31, 2025, serving customers across 19 Pennsylvania counties plus three in New Jersey and five in Maryland through its Univest Bank and Trust subsidiary. The bank's highest concentration of deposits and loans is in Montgomery, Bucks, Lancaster, and Philadelphia counties, where 27 of its 38 financial centers are located. Univest Bank is regulated by the Pennsylvania Department of Banking and Securities and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Univest earns net interest income on its loan and securities portfolio alongside fee income from wealth management and insurance subsidiaries: Girard Investment Services (broker-dealer and insurance agency), Girard Advisory Services and Girard Pension Services (registered investment advisors), Univest Capital (equipment financing), and Univest Insurance (independent insurance agency). By headcount, about 68% of Univest's 960 employees work in banking, 8% in wealth management, 10% in insurance, and the remainder in shared support functions. On the asset side, approximately 79.7% of the loan and lease portfolio consisted of commercial, financial and agricultural, commercial real estate, and construction loans and leases as of December 31, 2025 — categories the company itself describes as carrying more default risk than residential real estate loans. On the funding side, noninterest-bearing deposits made up about 20% of the deposit base, split between business operating accounts (13%) and consumer deposits (7%).

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Univest's loan book is skewed toward higher-risk commercial exposure: nearly 80% of loans and leases are commercial, financial and agricultural, commercial real estate, or construction credits, categories the 10-K flags as more susceptible to loss during a business-cycle downturn because collateral is harder to liquidate and repayment often depends on a single borrower's business success or a completed construction project meeting its underwritten value. That concentration, layered onto a footprint centered in four Southeastern Pennsylvania counties rather than spread nationally, means a regional commercial real estate or construction downturn would test Univest's credit quality more directly than it would a bank with a more residential or geographically diversified book.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From Univest Financial Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202615d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (5.0% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.3
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn29.5%
ROE10.3%
Rev Growth12.1%
Beta0.65
Dividend2.08%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV65%elevated
Max Pain$25-42.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R -2.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 15d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $39.91Resistance $45.45

Price Targets

$41
$45
A.Upside+3.1%
A.R:R-2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-21.3% upside)
! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (15d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UVSP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $43.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (5.0% away). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $44.54 (+3.1%), stop $40.95 (−5.5%), A.R:R -2.8:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UVSP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.54 (+3.1% upside). Target $44.54 (+3.1%), stop $40.95 (−5.5%), A.R:R -2.8:1. Stop-loss: $40.95.

What are the risks of investing in UVSP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (5.0% away).

Is UVSP overvalued or undervalued?

Univest Financial Corporation trades at a P/E of 13.3 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about UVSP?

8 analysts cover UVSP with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $40.

What does Univest Financial Corporation do?Univest Financial is the Pennsylvania-based holding company for Univest Bank and Trust Co., a state-chartered...

Univest Financial is the Pennsylvania-based holding company for Univest Bank and Trust Co., a state-chartered commercial bank serving individuals, businesses, and municipalities across 19 Pennsylvania counties plus parts of New Jersey and Maryland. At December 31, 2025, the company had $8.4 billion in total assets, $6.8 billion in net loans and leases, and $7.1 billion in deposits, supplemented by wealth management, insurance, and equipment-financing subsidiaries.

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