Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.48
- ▸Attractively valued
UVSP · Why this verdict
Why Univest Financial (UVSP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 8.6%, and the engine flags the earnings report in 18 days as a catalyst edge given this beat streak. Edge rationale | The company should beat or meet estimates again at the July 22 earnings report to extend the streak. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent inline quarter (+0.73% surprise) shows the beat magnitude has been shrinking, which could signal the streak is losing momentum. | ||
The stock trades at an attractive valuation (forward P/E of 11.7x, PEG of 0.47) while delivering strong margins of 30% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should stay below 13x and margins should hold at or above 25% over the next 12 months to sustain the attractive-valuation case. | →Stable |
| CounterNo competitive moat is identified, so the valuation discount could reflect a lack of durable differentiation versus regional bank peers rather than a genuine mispricing. | ||
The stock is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, trading above all moving averages, an RSI of 64, and bullish MACD. Chart pattern detection | The stock should hold above its moving averages and the breakout setup should be confirmed by continued price strength over the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume signals distribution even as price makes new highs, a divergence that often precedes a failed breakout. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with only 0.9% upside to the take-profit level, and the engine's asymmetry gate failed at a ratio of -2.16, with downside risk of 5.8% now well exceeding the remaining upside. Engine gate (failed) | A new take-profit level above the current $44.54 resistance should emerge to restore positive asymmetry over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA continued earnings beat streak could force analysts to raise price targets well above the current level, resolving the negative asymmetry. | ||
Insiders have sold $1,541,134 of stock over the last 90 days across 5 separate transactions, rated as minor-severity selling equal to 0.125% of market cap. Insider | Insider selling should not escalate beyond 0.125% of market cap over the next 12 months and net insider activity should turn neutral or positive. | →Stable |
| CounterMultiple smaller sales with no C-level participation and a minor-severity rating can reflect routine diversification rather than a negative signal. | ||
The bank has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 8.6%, and the engine flags the earnings report in 18 days as a catalyst edge given this beat streak.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- The company should beat or meet estimates again at the July 22 earnings report to extend the streak.
CounterThe most recent inline quarter (+0.73% surprise) shows the beat magnitude has been shrinking, which could signal the streak is losing momentum.
The stock trades at an attractive valuation (forward P/E of 11.7x, PEG of 0.47) while delivering strong margins of 30% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should stay below 13x and margins should hold at or above 25% over the next 12 months to sustain the attractive-valuation case.
CounterNo competitive moat is identified, so the valuation discount could reflect a lack of durable differentiation versus regional bank peers rather than a genuine mispricing.
The stock is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, trading above all moving averages, an RSI of 64, and bullish MACD.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- The stock should hold above its moving averages and the breakout setup should be confirmed by continued price strength over the next 2 quarters.
CounterFalling on-balance volume signals distribution even as price makes new highs, a divergence that often precedes a failed breakout.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with only 0.9% upside to the take-profit level, and the engine's asymmetry gate failed at a ratio of -2.16, with downside risk of 5.8% now well exceeding the remaining upside.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- A new take-profit level above the current $44.54 resistance should emerge to restore positive asymmetry over the next 12 months.
CounterA continued earnings beat streak could force analysts to raise price targets well above the current level, resolving the negative asymmetry.
Insiders have sold $1,541,134 of stock over the last 90 days across 5 separate transactions, rated as minor-severity selling equal to 0.125% of market cap.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling should not escalate beyond 0.125% of market cap over the next 12 months and net insider activity should turn neutral or positive.
CounterMultiple smaller sales with no C-level participation and a minor-severity rating can reflect routine diversification rather than a negative signal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Univest Financial carries a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak and a technical breakout at an attractive valuation with strong margins, but the stock has already reached its price target with sharply negative asymmetry and notable insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 6.9 |
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.3 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,541,134 (0.125% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 4.6 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.5 |
| support resistance | 4.1 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.1 |
- ▸High IV: 65%
- ▸Above max pain $25
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.80
Upside
-21.3%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 15d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 7.6; weakest: Momentum at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Catalyst at 6.5, and Growth at 6.2; the weakest are Momentum at 4.0, Insider at 4.4, and Sentiment at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.80 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Catalyst
Trip ifEarnings surprise turns negative, falling below 0% at the next report.
- P2Attractive Valuation Strong Margins
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 20% from the current 30%.
- P3Technical Breakout Setup
Trip ifStock price falls below its 200-day moving average, a decline of more than 8% from the current $44.13.
- P4Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifTake-profit level rises above $50 from the current $44.54.
- P5Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a percentage of market cap falls below 0.05% from the current 0.125%.