Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 9.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.57
- ▸Attractively valued
UVSP · Why this verdict
Why Univest Financial (UVSP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Univest Financial carries a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak and a technical breakout at an attractive valuation with strong margins, but the stock has already reached its price target with sharply negative asymmetry and notable insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 8.6%, and the engine flags the earnings report in 18 days as a catalyst edge given this beat streak. Edge rationale | The company should beat or meet estimates again at the July 22 earnings report to extend the streak. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent inline quarter (+0.73% surprise) shows the beat magnitude has been shrinking, which could signal the streak is losing momentum. | ||
The stock trades at an attractive valuation (forward P/E of 11.7x, PEG of 0.47) while delivering strong margins of 30% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should stay below 13x and margins should hold at or above 25% over the next 12 months to sustain the attractive-valuation case. | →Stable |
| CounterNo competitive moat is identified, so the valuation discount could reflect a lack of durable differentiation versus regional bank peers rather than a genuine mispricing. | ||
The stock is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, trading above all moving averages, an RSI of 64, and bullish MACD. Chart pattern detection | The stock should hold above its moving averages and the breakout setup should be confirmed by continued price strength over the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume signals distribution even as price makes new highs, a divergence that often precedes a failed breakout. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with only 0.9% upside to the take-profit level, and the engine's asymmetry gate failed at a ratio of -2.16, with downside risk of 5.8% now well exceeding the remaining upside. Engine gate (failed) | A new take-profit level above the current $44.54 resistance should emerge to restore positive asymmetry over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA continued earnings beat streak could force analysts to raise price targets well above the current level, resolving the negative asymmetry. | ||
Insiders have sold $1,541,134 of stock over the last 90 days across 5 separate transactions, rated as minor-severity selling equal to 0.125% of market cap. Insider | Insider selling should not escalate beyond 0.125% of market cap over the next 12 months and net insider activity should turn neutral or positive. | →Stable |
| CounterMultiple smaller sales with no C-level participation and a minor-severity rating can reflect routine diversification rather than a negative signal. | ||
The bank has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 8.6%, and the engine flags the earnings report in 18 days as a catalyst edge given this beat streak.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- The company should beat or meet estimates again at the July 22 earnings report to extend the streak.
CounterThe most recent inline quarter (+0.73% surprise) shows the beat magnitude has been shrinking, which could signal the streak is losing momentum.
The stock trades at an attractive valuation (forward P/E of 11.7x, PEG of 0.47) while delivering strong margins of 30% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should stay below 13x and margins should hold at or above 25% over the next 12 months to sustain the attractive-valuation case.
CounterNo competitive moat is identified, so the valuation discount could reflect a lack of durable differentiation versus regional bank peers rather than a genuine mispricing.
The stock is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, trading above all moving averages, an RSI of 64, and bullish MACD.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- The stock should hold above its moving averages and the breakout setup should be confirmed by continued price strength over the next 2 quarters.
CounterFalling on-balance volume signals distribution even as price makes new highs, a divergence that often precedes a failed breakout.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with only 0.9% upside to the take-profit level, and the engine's asymmetry gate failed at a ratio of -2.16, with downside risk of 5.8% now well exceeding the remaining upside.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- A new take-profit level above the current $44.54 resistance should emerge to restore positive asymmetry over the next 12 months.
CounterA continued earnings beat streak could force analysts to raise price targets well above the current level, resolving the negative asymmetry.
Insiders have sold $1,541,134 of stock over the last 90 days across 5 separate transactions, rated as minor-severity selling equal to 0.125% of market cap.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling should not escalate beyond 0.125% of market cap over the next 12 months and net insider activity should turn neutral or positive.
CounterMultiple smaller sales with no C-level participation and a minor-severity rating can reflect routine diversification rather than a negative signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 5.8 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 9.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.40 (n=1)
Insider
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $552,730 (0.048% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 3.9 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 8.5 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| beta | 9.0 |
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| surprise avg | 3.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.56
Upside
-8.1%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.9; weakest: Insider at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Momentum at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3; the weakest are Insider at 3.6, Technical at 4.5, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Catalyst
Trip ifEarnings surprise turns negative, falling below 0% at the next report.
- P2Attractive Valuation Strong Margins
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 20% from the current 30%.
- P3Technical Breakout Setup
Trip ifStock price falls below its 200-day moving average, a decline of more than 8% from the current $44.13.
- P4Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifTake-profit level rises above $50 from the current $44.54.
- P5Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a percentage of market cap falls below 0.05% from the current 0.125%.