Skip to main content
UDRUDR, Inc.Hold5.6·$38.30-3.58%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

UDR is a residential REIT with 205% free cash flow conversion relative to reported earnings, a Rule of 40 score of 61, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7, but consecutive earnings misses and a price that has already reached its analyst target eliminate the near-term entry case.

Thesis pillars

  • Elite Free Cash Conversion 205 PctDeteriorating
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesImproving
  • Above 200 Day Golden CrossStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

UDR, Inc. (UDR) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Residential

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

UDR, Inc. owns and operates 165 multifamily apartment communities totaling 55,240 apartment homes across 21 U.S. markets, spanning coastal and sunbelt locations. Revenue is generated through residential leases, with Same-Store revenue growth of 2.4% and NOI growth of 2.3% in... Read more

$38.30-1.2% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#4 of 17 REIT - Residential
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.44%(5y avg 3.85%)Payout117.01%
Stop $36.91Target $41.01(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$42.05+9.8%21 analysts
$41.01our TP
$38.30price
$42.05mean
$46

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About UDR, Inc.

About UDR, Inc.

UDR's 55,240-home multifamily portfolio, spread across 165 communities in 21 U.S. markets at December 31, 2025, generated Same-Store revenue growth of 2.4% and Same-Store NOI growth of 2.3% during 2025. Net income attributable to common stockholders reached $372.9 million, up from $84.8 million in 2024, driven largely by higher disposition gains and lower depreciation. The portfolio spans both coastal and sunbelt locations, with an urban/suburban property mix of approximately 32%/68%.

UDR earns revenue primarily through short-term residential leases — the majority with initial terms of 12 months or less — which allows the company to reprice units at each renewal cycle. This structure can accelerate revenue recovery in rising-rent markets but also exposes results to faster rent declines when market conditions soften. UDR reports in two segments: Same-Store Communities (acquired and stabilized before January 1, 2024, with no planned substantial redevelopment) and Non-Mature Communities/Other. The company supplements direct ownership through unconsolidated joint ventures and a Debt and Preferred Equity Program; the company received $204.2 million in distributions from unconsolidated ventures in 2025, including $97.3 million from preferred equity repayments. Capital structure includes both secured and unsecured debt, with the term loan extended to January 31, 2029 during the year. The A/B quality split of approximately 44%/56% distributes exposure across tenant income cohorts.

Show full overview

Lease maturity risk is moderated by the short-duration structure, but the same brevity means that roughly 22% of leases at a given time can roll within months. The 10-K notes that because the majority of apartment leases have initial terms of 12 months or less, rental revenues are impacted by declines in market rents more quickly than if leases were for longer terms. Additionally, several of UDR's highest-weighted markets — California, New York, and Washington D.C. — operate under active rent stabilization or control frameworks, which could prevent the company from raising rents to offset increases in operating costs.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Residential

From UDR, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202690d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.5
P/E (Fwd)70.9
Mkt Cap$14.7B
EV/EBITDA18.9
Profit Mgn29.6%
ROE13.7%
Rev Growth-0.1%
Beta0.69
Dividend4.44%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV42%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.6
Analyst Target
4.0
Ps
4.6

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.1
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
5.5
Rsi
7.6
Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.05Resistance $41.85

Price Targets

$37
$41
A.Upside-1.2%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.2% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UDR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $41.01 (+7.1%), stop $36.91 (−3.8%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UDR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.01 (-1.2% upside). Target $41.01 (+7.1%), stop $36.91 (−3.8%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $36.91.

What are the risks of investing in UDR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Expensive valuation.

Is UDR overvalued or undervalued?

UDR, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.5 (forward 70.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about UDR?

28 analysts cover UDR with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $42.

What does UDR, Inc. do?UDR, Inc. owns and operates 165 multifamily apartment communities totaling 55,240 apartment homes across 21 U.S....

UDR, Inc. owns and operates 165 multifamily apartment communities totaling 55,240 apartment homes across 21 U.S. markets, spanning coastal and sunbelt locations. Revenue is generated through residential leases, with Same-Store revenue growth of 2.4% and NOI growth of 2.3% in 2025; the company also holds interests in 12,167 additional apartment homes through unconsolidated joint ventures.

Related stocks: MRP (Millrose Properties, Inc.) · AMH (American Homes 4 Rent) · ELS (Equity Lifestyle Properties, In) · INVH (Invitation Homes Inc.) · JAN (Janus Living, Inc.)
Home Stocks UDR

Latest news

Latest News

MarketWatch1d ago
Quiver Quantitative92d agoEarnings
Stock Titan92d ago
Investing.com92d ago
Investing.com92d agoEarnings
GuruFocus8d agoAnalyst
Yahoo Finance9d agoEarnings
The Globe and Mail9d agoAnalyst
MarketWatch99d ago
MarketBeat100d agoEarnings
TradingView3d ago
GuruFocus93d ago
MarketWatch93d ago
GuruFocus9d agoAnalyst
Yahoo Finance10d agoEarnings
AD HOC NEWS10d ago
MarketWatch100d ago
AD HOC NEWS101d ago
Yahoo Finance16h ago
Ad-hoc-news.de8d ago
Loading more...