TPG RE Finance Trust shows a strong Piotroski F-Score and a bullish breakout setup, but a thin upside margin and a failed asymmetry gate mean the risk-reward is unfavorable enough to hold rather than add.
Thesis pillars
- Thin Upside Margin→Stable
- Strong Piotroski Margins→Stable
- Bullish Breakout Setup→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: first mortgage loans (100.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.9%.
TPG RE Finance Trust is an externally managed commercial real estate finance REIT that originates and acquires first mortgage loans secured by institutional-quality U.S. properties, managed by an affiliate of TPG, which had $303 billion in assets under management as of December... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: first mortgage loans (100.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.9%. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductfirst mortgage loans100%10-K Item 1: 'As of December 31, 2025, 99.7% of our loan commitments were floating rate, of which 100.0% were first mortgage loans.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: first mortgage loans (100.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.9%. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $8.70 (+3.9%), stop $8.09 (−3.5%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $8.70 (+3.9% upside). Target $8.70 (+3.9%), stop $8.09 (−3.5%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $8.09.
Concentration risk — Product: first mortgage loans (100.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.9%.
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.1 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
12 analysts cover TRTX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $10.
What does TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. do?TPG RE Finance Trust is an externally managed commercial real estate finance REIT that originates and acquires first...
TPG RE Finance Trust is an externally managed commercial real estate finance REIT that originates and acquires first mortgage loans secured by institutional-quality U.S. properties, managed by an affiliate of TPG, which had $303 billion in assets under management as of December 31, 2025. As of that date, the company held 50 loans for investment totaling $4.3 billion in commitments and a $4.1 billion unpaid principal balance, entirely first mortgage loans, with a weighted average all-in yield of 7.1% and a weighted average loan-to-value ratio of 65.7%.