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TRSTTrustCo Bank Corp NYSell5.2·$53.45-2.30%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

TrustCo Bank pairs an attractive valuation and strong margins with a beat-streak catalyst ahead and recent insider buying, though the stock's proximity to its 52-week high and exhausted upside estimate limit the near-term reward.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Strong MarginsStable
  • Earnings Catalyst Beat StreakStable
  • Insider Buying Bullish SignalStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $53.45 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: consumer residential real estate loans (93.8%).

TrustCo Bank Corp NY is a savings and loan holding company whose subsidiary, Trustco Bank, operates 134 banking offices and 154 ATMs across counties in New York, Florida, Vermont, Massachusetts, and New Jersey. As of December 31, 2025, the bank held $6.4 billion in total assets... Read more

$53.45+3.9% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#198 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.78%(5y avg 4.31%)Payout43.99%sustainable
Stop $51.03Target $55.53(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $53.45 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: consumer residential real estate loans (93.8%). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About TrustCo Bank Corp NY

About TrustCo Bank Corp NY

TrustCo Bank Corp NY held $6.4 billion in total assets and $5.6 billion in deposits as of December 31, 2025, operating through its Trustco Bank subsidiary across 134 banking offices and 154 ATMs in counties spanning New York, Florida, Vermont, Massachusetts, and New Jersey. The federal savings bank is primarily regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, with deposits insured by the FDIC and the holding company supervised by the Federal Reserve Board. Trustco Bank's Financial Services Department manages approximately $1.27 billion in trust, custody, and investment assets.

TrustCo earns the large majority of its revenue from net interest income on loans funded primarily by branch deposits, supplemented by fee income from Trustco Financial Services' trust, custody, estate, and wealth-management business. The bank's lending is heavily weighted toward one-to-four-family residential mortgages and home equity lines of credit, supplemented by commercial and commercial real estate loans underwritten against borrower cash flow, loan-to-value limits, and debt-service coverage ratios, and a smaller consumer loan book of personal installment and automobile loans. TrustCo is a member of the Federal Home Loan Bank system, which provides collateralized advances as a secondary funding and liquidity source alongside its securities portfolio. Dividends the Bank pays up to the holding company, TrustCo's primary source of revenue, require compliance with OCC and Federal Reserve Board capital-distribution rules, including prior notice or approval when distributions exceed retained net income thresholds.

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TrustCo's loan book carries an unusually concentrated risk profile for a bank its size: consumer residential real estate loans made up approximately 93.8% of the total loan portfolio as of December 31, 2025, leaving the company's credit performance tightly linked to home values and borrower repayment capacity in its Upstate New York and Florida market areas rather than diversified across commercial, industrial, or consumer credit types. A smaller but flagged pocket of risk sits in the office property segment, 9.6% of the total loan portfolio, which the 10-K says is undergoing a structural shift toward elevated vacancies as remote work persists, a dynamic management expects could take several years to resolve.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From TrustCo Bank Corp NY's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 20, 202613d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: consumer residential real estate loans (93.8%)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.2
P/E (Fwd)19.2
Mkt Cap$961M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn33.3%
ROE9.3%
Rev Growth7.9%
Beta0.63
Dividend2.78%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV81%elevated
Max Pain$40-25.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfolioconsumer residential real estate loans94%
    10-K Item 1A: 'consumer residential real estate loans represented approximately 93.8% of our total loan portfolio'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-20Item 5.02LOW
    TrustCo's Board amended its 2019 Equity Incentive Plan to increase shares available for issuance by 500,000 (to 1,200,000), approved by shareholders at the May 19, 2026 Annual Meeting. Routine compensatory plan amendment; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.5
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
2.7
Quality Rank
4.9
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $51.35Resistance $56.66

Price Targets

$51
$56
A.Upside+3.9%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TRST stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $53.45 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: consumer residential real estate loans (93.8%). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $51.03. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TRST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.53 (+3.9% upside). Prior stop was $51.03. Stop-loss: $51.03.

What are the risks of investing in TRST?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: consumer residential real estate loans (93.8%); Negative momentum.

Is TRST overvalued or undervalued?

TrustCo Bank Corp NY trades at a P/E of 16.2 (forward 19.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TRST?

6 analysts cover TRST with a consensus score of 2.0/5.

What does TrustCo Bank Corp NY do?TrustCo Bank Corp NY is a savings and loan holding company whose subsidiary, Trustco Bank, operates 134 banking offices...

TrustCo Bank Corp NY is a savings and loan holding company whose subsidiary, Trustco Bank, operates 134 banking offices and 154 ATMs across counties in New York, Florida, Vermont, Massachusetts, and New Jersey. As of December 31, 2025, the bank held $6.4 billion in total assets and $5.6 billion in deposits, with consumer residential real estate loans making up approximately 93.8% of its total loan portfolio, alongside $1.27 billion in trust and wealth-management assets under its Financial Services Department.

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