Value
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.6 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 7.6 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.90
- ▸Attractively valued
TRST · Why this verdict
Why TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
TrustCo trades at an attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 19.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.89, alongside strong margins of 33% noted in the quality data. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay below 1.0 and margins should hold near 30% or higher over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank margins are sensitive to net interest margin compression if rates move unfavorably, which could erode the current 33% margin level. | ||
The stock carries a catalyst edge tied to an earnings report in 16 days, backed by a 3-of-4 beat streak in the trailing four quarters. Edge rationale | The beat streak should extend to 4 of 5 quarters at the next report on 2026-07-20. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss in the trailing four quarters came in at -21.21% surprise, a sizable deviation that shows the streak can break significantly rather than marginally. | ||
Insiders have been net buyers, adding 305 shares across 3 separate purchases in the past 90 days, and the engine classifies the insider signal as bullish. Insider | Insider buying should continue or at minimum not reverse into net selling over the next few months. | →Stable |
| Counter305 shares is a modest absolute amount for a bank of this size, so the buying may be too small to serve as a strong conviction signal. | ||
The stock is near its 52-week high, just 3.8% away, and the engine's asymmetry warning shows upside already exhausted at 0.0%. Bear case | A new upside estimate above 5% should emerge, or the stock should break out to new highs, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRange-bound bank stocks near 52-week highs can still work as steady dividend and buyback compounding vehicles even without near-term price upside. | ||
TrustCo trades at an attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 19.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.89, alongside strong margins of 33% noted in the quality data.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay below 1.0 and margins should hold near 30% or higher over the next 12 months.
CounterRegional bank margins are sensitive to net interest margin compression if rates move unfavorably, which could erode the current 33% margin level.
The stock carries a catalyst edge tied to an earnings report in 16 days, backed by a 3-of-4 beat streak in the trailing four quarters.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to 4 of 5 quarters at the next report on 2026-07-20.
CounterThe one miss in the trailing four quarters came in at -21.21% surprise, a sizable deviation that shows the streak can break significantly rather than marginally.
Insiders have been net buyers, adding 305 shares across 3 separate purchases in the past 90 days, and the engine classifies the insider signal as bullish.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying should continue or at minimum not reverse into net selling over the next few months.
Counter305 shares is a modest absolute amount for a bank of this size, so the buying may be too small to serve as a strong conviction signal.
The stock is near its 52-week high, just 3.8% away, and the engine's asymmetry warning shows upside already exhausted at 0.0%.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- A new upside estimate above 5% should emerge, or the stock should break out to new highs, over the next 12 months.
CounterRange-bound bank stocks near 52-week highs can still work as steady dividend and buyback compounding vehicles even without near-term price upside.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
TrustCo Bank pairs an attractive valuation and strong margins with a beat-streak catalyst ahead and recent insider buying, though the stock's proximity to its 52-week high and exhausted upside estimate limit the near-term reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 6.3 |
Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.6 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $15,307 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.3 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.2 |
- ▸High IV: 81%
- ▸Above max pain $40
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
Warning (3)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 13d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.2, Technical at 7.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.9; the weakest are Momentum at 2.8, Peer rank at 3.7, and Insider at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Strong Margins
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.5 or margins compress below 25%.
- P2Earnings Catalyst Beat Streak
Trip ifCompany posts a miss with surprise below 0% at the 2026-07-20 report, breaking the beat streak.
- P3Insider Buying Bullish Signal
Trip ifInsider signal flips to net selling with more than 500 shares sold over the next 90 days.
- P4Upside Exhausted Near 52 Week High
Trip ifUpside estimate rises above 5% or the stock breaks to a new 52-week high.