LendingTree pairs genuine fundamental strength — a wide moat, high ROE, and strong growth — with a technically fragile setup after a death cross, cyclical valuation risk from earnings normalization, and elevated leverage.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Growth Wide Moat Quality→Stable
- Death Cross Recovery Setup→Stable
- Cyclical Pe Expansion Leverage Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
LendingTree, Inc. (TREE) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing).
LendingTree operates an online marketplace connecting consumers with a network of approximately 770 partners across three segments: Home (mortgage, refinance, home equity), Consumer (credit cards, personal, auto, and small business loans, deposit accounts), and Insurance (auto,... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About LendingTree, Inc.
About LendingTree, Inc.
LendingTree generated $1.12 billion in total revenue in 2025 across three reportable segments — Insurance ($711.9 million), Consumer ($253.4 million), and Home ($151.8 million) — connecting consumers with a nationwide network of approximately 770 partners. One partner, Progressive Casualty Insurance, accounted for 27% of total consolidated revenue in 2025, entirely within the Insurance segment. The company operates under federal consumer-finance laws including the Truth in Lending Act, RESPA, and the Dodd-Frank Act.
LendingTree earns nearly all of its revenue from Network Partners rather than consumers, generally in the form of upfront match fees paid when a consumer request is transmitted, plus click, call, and closed-loan fees, and per-approval fees for credit-card referrals; a single consumer request in the Home segment can generate up to five separate match fees since it may be sent to as many as five lenders. The Home segment's mortgage and refinance volume is highly rate-sensitive: the annual average mortgage rate held near 6.6%-6.7% from 2023 through 2025, well above 2021 lows, continuing to suppress refinance activity. The Consumer segment has benefited from recent Federal Reserve rate decreases widening lender credit appetite, while the Insurance segment, anchored by the QuoteWizard marketplace, has strengthened as carriers including Progressive and Allstate increased advertising budgets following favorable automotive underwriting results.
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LendingTree's Insurance segment carries meaningful counterparty concentration: Progressive Casualty Insurance alone accounted for 27% of total consolidated revenue in 2025, up from 22% in 2024, when Allstate Insurance Company contributed an additional 11%. Because Network Partner contracts generally may be terminated for convenience by either party, a reduction in Progressive's advertising spend or a shift away from LendingTree's marketplace could disproportionately affect consolidated results given that the entire 27% is booked within a single segment rather than spread across Home and Consumer as well.
See also: Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates
From LendingTree, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-23Recent Developments — LendingTree, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Is LendingTree Inc (TREE) Undervalued After Q2 Earnings with EPS of $0.68? GF Score: 72/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS LendingTree (NASDAQ:TREE) Misses Q2 CY2026 Revenue Estimates, Stock Drops - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS LendingTree (NASDAQ:TREE) Misses Q2 CY2026 Revenue Estimates, Stock Drops - FinancialContent — FinancialContent negative
- NEWS Lendingtree earnings missed by $0.70, revenue fell short of estimates - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS LendingTree Q2 revenue rises 25% to $313.4 million - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
Generated 2026-08-23T02:21:54Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerProgressive Casualty Insurance27%10-K Item 1: 'one Network Partner, Progressive Casualty Insurance, accounted for 27% of total consolidated revenue, all of which was recorded within our Insurance segment.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02MEDIUMJill Olmstead is leaving her role as Chief Human Resources Officer of LendingTree, LLC, effective May 31, 2026, terminated without cause; she will receive standard severance benefits and provide transition consulting services through March 31, 2027. No successor named in the disclosed text.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Prior stop was $28.88. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $48.72 (+58.1% upside). Prior stop was $28.88. Stop-loss: $28.88.
Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
LendingTree, Inc. trades at a P/E of 2.4 (forward 4.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover TREE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $56.
What does LendingTree, Inc. do?LendingTree operates an online marketplace connecting consumers with a network of approximately 770 partners across...
LendingTree operates an online marketplace connecting consumers with a network of approximately 770 partners across three segments: Home (mortgage, refinance, home equity), Consumer (credit cards, personal, auto, and small business loans, deposit accounts), and Insurance (auto, home, life, health, and Medicare quotes). The company earns match fees from Network Partners rather than charging consumers, generating $1.12 billion in total revenue in 2025, with the Insurance segment contributing $711.9 million of that total.