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TRCTejon Ranch CoSell5.4·$18.31+0.27%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Tejon Ranch shows a strong Piotroski F-Score and solid growth, but rich valuation, weak quality composite, and an earnings-quality red flag on cash conversion argue for caution despite favorable momentum.

Thesis pillars

  • Rich Forward ValuationStable
  • Earnings Quality Red FlagStable
  • Strong Piotroski FundamentalsStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Conglomerates

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.31: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

We are a diversified real estate development company anchored by the Tejon Ranch Commerce Center ("TRCC"), a 20 million-square-foot commercial and industrial development strategically located along Interstate 5 at the gateway between the Los Angeles Basin and California's... Read more

$18.31+21.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#10 of 19 Conglomerates
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-2.47%
Stop $17.56Target $22.31(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.4:1
Analyst target$26.25+43.4%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.31: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)309.0
P/E (Fwd)168.5
Mkt Cap$500M
EV/EBITDA430.9
Profit Mgn3.3%
ROE0.3%
Rev Growth15.8%
Beta0.60
DividendNone
Rating analysts1

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.12bullish
IV60%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
0.1
Net Margin
1.7
Moat
6.4
Piotroski F
7.8
Current Ratio
9.3
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -732% FCF/NIStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9Quality concerns

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Forward Pe
1.0
Ps
3.6
Peg Ratio
4.5
Forward P/E: 168.5xPEG: 2.02
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 4.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.10Resistance $19.79

Price Targets

$18
$22
A.Upside+21.8%
A.R:R4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TRC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.31: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $17.56. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TRC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.31 (+21.8% upside). Prior stop was $17.56. Stop-loss: $17.56.

What are the risks of investing in TRC?

Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).

Is TRC overvalued or undervalued?

Tejon Ranch Co trades at a P/E of 309.0 (forward 168.5). TrendMatrix value score: 3.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

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What does Tejon Ranch Co do?We are a diversified real estate development company anchored by the Tejon Ranch Commerce Center ("TRCC"), a 20...

We are a diversified real estate development company anchored by the Tejon Ranch Commerce Center ("TRCC"), a 20 million-square-foot commercial and industrial development strategically located along Interstate 5 at the gateway between the Los Angeles Basin and California's Central Valley. TRCC is the primary driver of our revenue and earnings.

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