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TPRTapestry, Inc.Hold6.0·$118.49+2.26%
HoldHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Tapestry is a high-quality luxury goods company with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, 231% free cash flow conversion, and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak averaging 14.9% positive surprises, supported by a strong competitive moat in branded handbags. The primary near-term constraint is that the stock has reached its analyst resistance target, with the Coach brand accounting for approximately 80% of revenues representing a meaningful concentration risk.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Free Cash Conversion And QualityStable
  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakDeteriorating
  • Coach Brand Revenue ConcentrationStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Tapestry, Inc. (TPR) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Luxury Goods

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $118.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Coach (79.9%); Concentration risk — Product: DTC (direct-to-consumer) (86.0%).

Tapestry is a house of accessories and lifestyle brands operating Coach and kate spade new york (plus Stuart Weitzman through fiscal 2025, divested to Caleres in August 2025). Coach generated 79.9% of Tapestry's $7.0 billion in net sales in fiscal 2025, and direct-to-consumer... Read more

$118.49+27.1% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#2 of 6 Luxury Goods
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.93%
IncomeYield1.56%(5y avg 2.27%)Payout22.01%sustainable
Stop $111.19Target $150.66(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.4:1
Analyst target$167.40+41.3%20 analysts
$150.66our TP
$118.49price
$167.40mean
$96
$232

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $118.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Coach (79.9%); Concentration risk — Product: DTC (direct-to-consumer) (86.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Tapestry, Inc.

About Tapestry, Inc.

Coach generated 79.9% of Tapestry's $7.0 billion in net sales in fiscal 2025, with kate spade new york contributing 17.1% and Stuart Weitzman — since divested to Caleres in August 2025 — the remaining 3.0%. Tapestry operated 1,371 stores worldwide as of June 28, 2025, split between 541 in North America and 830 internationally, and direct-to-consumer channels (stores, e-commerce, and concessions) generated approximately 86% of total net sales.

Tapestry sells through direct-to-consumer stores and e-commerce, wholesale relationships with department and specialty stores, and licensing agreements covering categories such as eyewear (Luxottica), watches (Movado), and fragrance (Interparfums), with royalties currently equal to about 1% of total net sales. Wholesale represented approximately 13% of fiscal 2025 net sales, and no customer accounted for more than 10% of any segment's net sales. Handbags remain the largest product category, at 54.9% of Tapestry's net sales, followed by accessories at 25.8%. The company sources finished goods from independent manufacturers primarily in Vietnam, Cambodia, the Philippines, mainland China, India, and Spain, managed through sourcing offices in those regions; no single Coach or Kate Spade vendor supplied 10% or more of either brand's inventory purchases, though one Spain-based vendor supplied approximately 11% of Stuart Weitzman's inventory purchases. Marketing spending reached $744.5 million in fiscal 2025, nearly 11% of net sales, up from over 9% in fiscal 2024.

Show full overview

Beneath Tapestry's brand-portfolio numbers sits a multi-year erosion story at kate spade: segment net sales fell from $1,418.9 million in fiscal 2023 to $1,197.1 million in fiscal 2025, with handbags — the brand's core category — shrinking from 54.9% to 52.1% of segment sales over the same period even as its 'Other' category (jewelry, home décor, gifts) grew from 18.1% to 20.8%. That mix shift toward lower-margin extension categories, alongside two consecutive years of segment revenue decline, is a distinct and falsifiable brand-health signal that the top-line Coach concentration figures don't capture.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Luxury Goods

From Tapestry, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted September 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Coach (79.9%)
Concentration risk — Product: DTC (direct-to-consumer) (86.0%)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.3
P/E (Fwd)13.3
Mkt Cap$23.6B
EV/EBITDA13.1
Profit Mgn19.1%
ROE197.1%
Rev Growth8.9%
Beta1.43
Dividend1.56%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV50%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductCoach80%
    10-K Item 1: 'Coach is a global fashion house of accessories and lifestyle collections ... This segment represented 79.9% of total net sales in fiscal 2025.'
  • HIGHProductDTC (direct-to-consumer)86%
    10-K Item 1: 'DTC revenues were approximately 86% of total net sales in fiscal 2025.'
  • LOWSupplierStuart Weitzman Spain vendor11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Stuart Weitzman had one vendor, located in Spain, who individually provided approximately 11% of the brand's total inventory purchases.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-06Item 5.02LOW
    Tapestry expanded its Board from ten to eleven members, electing Matthew Madrigal as a director effective April 6, 2026, under standard non-employee director compensation arrangements. Routine board appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 4.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $112.11Resistance $134.84

Price Targets

$111
$151
A.Upside+27.1%
A.R:R4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier +2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 1.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $118.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Coach (79.9%); Concentration risk — Product: DTC (direct-to-consumer) (86.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $150.66 (+27.1%), stop $111.19 (−6.6%), A.R:R 4.4:1. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.

What is the TPR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $150.66 (+27.1% upside). Target $150.66 (+27.1%), stop $111.19 (−6.6%), A.R:R 4.4:1. Stop-loss: $111.19.

What are the risks of investing in TPR?

Concentration risk — Product: Coach (79.9%); Concentration risk — Product: DTC (direct-to-consumer) (86.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is TPR overvalued or undervalued?

Tapestry, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.3 (forward 13.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TPR?

28 analysts cover TPR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $167.

What does Tapestry, Inc. do?Tapestry is a house of accessories and lifestyle brands operating Coach and kate spade new york (plus Stuart Weitzman...

Tapestry is a house of accessories and lifestyle brands operating Coach and kate spade new york (plus Stuart Weitzman through fiscal 2025, divested to Caleres in August 2025). Coach generated 79.9% of Tapestry's $7.0 billion in net sales in fiscal 2025, and direct-to-consumer channels — retail/outlet stores, e-commerce, and concessions — made up approximately 86% of total net sales across 1,371 stores worldwide.

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