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TPRTapestry, Inc.Buy Wait6.5·$146.00+3.62%
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Tapestry, Inc. (TPR) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Luxury Goods

Wait for pullback to $125.45. At $146.00 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $125.45 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Tapestry operates two luxury accessories brands: Coach (79.9% of FY2025 net sales, 931 stores globally) and kate spade new york (17.1%), after divesting Stuart Weitzman in August 2025. The company generated $7.0B in FY2025 net revenues, with 86% from direct-to-consumer channels... Read more

$146.00+13.4% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#2 of 5 Luxury Goods
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.20%
IncomeYield1.10%(5y avg 4.06%)Payout47.26%sustainable
Entry $125.45(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $115.81Target $147.79(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1Setup A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$164.21+12.5%19 analysts
$147.79our TP
$146.00price
$164.21mean
$88
$200

Wait for pullback to $125.45. At $146.00 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $125.45 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.30, quality 8.3/10, growth 8.9/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202664d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.3 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)44.4
P/E (Fwd)18.8
Mkt Cap$29.4B
EV/EBITDA16.4
Profit Mgn8.4%
ROE60.9%
Rev Growth21.2%
Beta1.45
Dividend1.10%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.07bullish
IV50%normal
Max Pain$70-52.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
1.0
Gap
5.0
52w Position
8.1
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $127.97Resistance $147.41

Price Targets

$116
$125
$148
A.Upside+1.2%
A.R:R0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.5% upside)
! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPR stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $125.45. At $146.00 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $125.45 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.30, quality 8.3/10, growth 8.9/10). Target $147.79 (+1.2%), stop $115.81 (−26.1%), Setup A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TPR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $147.79 (+13.4% upside). Target $147.79 (+1.2%), stop $115.81 (−26.1%), Setup A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $115.81.

What are the risks of investing in TPR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5.

Is TPR overvalued or undervalued?

Tapestry, Inc. trades at a P/E of 44.4 (forward 18.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TPR?

28 analysts cover TPR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $164.

What does Tapestry, Inc. do?Tapestry operates two luxury accessories brands: Coach (79.9% of FY2025 net sales, 931 stores globally) and kate spade...

Tapestry operates two luxury accessories brands: Coach (79.9% of FY2025 net sales, 931 stores globally) and kate spade new york (17.1%), after divesting Stuart Weitzman in August 2025. The company generated $7.0B in FY2025 net revenues, with 86% from direct-to-consumer channels and approximately 40% of net sales from international operations. No single wholesale customer exceeded 10% of any segment's net sales.

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