Turning Point Brands has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 16%, carries a wide economic moat score of 7.5 out of 10, and analysts see 58% upside potential, yet the stock is in a confirmed death cross downtrend with an RSI of 35 and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.69, creating a wide gap between fundamental value and current market sentiment.
Thesis pillars
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Wide Economic Moat With Beat Streak→Stable
- Large Analyst Upside Gap↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.51: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 6.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 13.71; Negative price momentum.
Turning Point Brands markets Zig-Zag® rolling papers, cigar wraps, and accessories alongside Stoker's® moist snuff and chewing tobacco, distributing to approximately 220,000 retail locations across North America. Revenue is driven by branded consumer products through... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.51: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 6.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 13.71; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — Turning Point Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) Q1 2026 Earnings: Profit Beats Estimates, Stock Gains - Earnings Yield Analysis - dars.g — dars.gov.et positive
- NEWS TPB|Turning Point Brands Inc|Price:73.500|Chg%:-2.930 - TradingKey — TradingKey negative
- NEWS Turning Point Brands Inc (TPB) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS TPB|Turning Point Brands Inc|Price:73.500|Chg%:-2.930 - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com negative
- NEWS Turning Point Brands (TPB) Projected to Post Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-09-14T07:57:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.51: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 6.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 13.71; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $69.32. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $108.90 (+52.3% upside). Prior stop was $69.32. Stop-loss: $69.32.
Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0).
Turning Point Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.1 (forward 29.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover TPB with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $125.
What does Turning Point Brands, Inc. do?Turning Point Brands markets Zig-Zag® rolling papers, cigar wraps, and accessories alongside Stoker's® moist snuff and...
Turning Point Brands markets Zig-Zag® rolling papers, cigar wraps, and accessories alongside Stoker's® moist snuff and chewing tobacco, distributing to approximately 220,000 retail locations across North America. Revenue is driven by branded consumer products through approximately 900 distributors; tobacco products represented approximately 62% of total 2025 net sales. Swedish Match and RTI are sole suppliers for loose-leaf tobacco and Zig-Zag® cigarette papers respectively, under long-term exclusive agreements.