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TPBTurning Point Brands, Inc.Buy Wait5.0·$82.56-2.05%
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Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $83.45 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth.

Turning Point Brands manufactures and distributes branded tobacco and alternative smoking products under Zig-Zag (rolling papers, MYO cigar wraps) and Stoker's (moist snuff, chewing tobacco) through ~220,000 North American retail outlets. Tobacco products comprised ~62% of 2025... Read more

$82.56+37.4% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#5 of 6 Tobacco
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.03%
IncomeYield0.37%(5y avg 0.70%)Payout10.45%sustainable
Entry $83.45(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $76.45Target $113.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.4:1
Analyst target$130.00+57.5%5 analysts
$113.10our TP
$82.56price
$130.00mean
$140

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $83.45 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Weak overall score: 5.0/10
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.9
P/E (Fwd)29.5
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA18.4
Profit Mgn11.5%
ROE22.5%
Rev Growth16.8%
Beta0.92
Dividend0.37%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$85+3.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
6.7
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5A.R:R 4.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $80.54Resistance $94.82

Price Targets

$76
$83
$113
A.Upside+37.0%
A.R:R4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 1.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPB stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $83.45 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $113.10 (+37.0%), stop $76.45 (−8.0%), Setup A.R:R 7.3:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TPB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $113.10 (+37.4% upside). Target $113.10 (+37.0%), stop $76.45 (−8.0%), Setup A.R:R 7.3:1. Stop-loss: $76.45.

What are the risks of investing in TPB?

Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is TPB overvalued or undervalued?

Turning Point Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.9 (forward 29.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TPB?

9 analysts cover TPB with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $130.

What does Turning Point Brands, Inc. do?Turning Point Brands manufactures and distributes branded tobacco and alternative smoking products under Zig-Zag...

Turning Point Brands manufactures and distributes branded tobacco and alternative smoking products under Zig-Zag (rolling papers, MYO cigar wraps) and Stoker's (moist snuff, chewing tobacco) through ~220,000 North American retail outlets. Tobacco products comprised ~62% of 2025 net sales; ~75% of net sales came from outsourced production. All loose-leaf chewing tobacco is manufactured by Swedish Match and all Zig-Zag cigarette papers are sourced from RTI.

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