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TMUST-Mobile US, Inc.Sell5.6·$189.01-0.05%
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T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $189.01: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Product: Postpaid customers (81.0%).

T-Mobile US is the second-largest wireless carrier in the US, serving 142.4 million postpaid and prepaid customers under T-Mobile, Metro by T-Mobile, and Mint Mobile brands. Service revenues are split 81% postpaid, 15% prepaid, and 4% wholesale; substantially all revenues are... Read more

$189.01+24.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#13 of 40 Telecom Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.45%
IncomeYield2.16%Payout40.38%sustainable
Stop $178.61Target $234.73(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$260.81+38.0%26 analysts
$234.73our TP
$189.01price
$260.81mean
$300

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $189.01: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Product: Postpaid customers (81.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 24%
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States
Concentration risk — Product: Postpaid customers (81.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.1
P/E (Fwd)13.5
Mkt Cap$204.6B
EV/EBITDA9.5
Profit Mgn11.6%
ROE18.0%
Rev Growth10.6%
Beta0.30
Dividend2.16%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.27bearish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$390+106.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States
    10-K Item 1: 'Substantially all of our revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, were earned in the United States'
  • HIGHProductPostpaid customers81%
    10-K Item 1: '81% Postpaid customers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.2
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $174.02Resistance $193.96

Price Targets

$179
$235
A.Upside+24.2%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts37
Consensus4.0/5
Avg Target$261

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TMUS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $189.01: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Product: Postpaid customers (81.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Prior stop was $178.61. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TMUS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $234.73 (+24.1% upside). Prior stop was $178.61. Stop-loss: $178.61.

What are the risks of investing in TMUS?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Product: Postpaid customers (81.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.

Is TMUS overvalued or undervalued?

T-Mobile US, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.1 (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TMUS?

37 analysts cover TMUS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $261.

What does T-Mobile US, Inc. do?T-Mobile US is the second-largest wireless carrier in the US, serving 142.4 million postpaid and prepaid customers...

T-Mobile US is the second-largest wireless carrier in the US, serving 142.4 million postpaid and prepaid customers under T-Mobile, Metro by T-Mobile, and Mint Mobile brands. Service revenues are split 81% postpaid, 15% prepaid, and 4% wholesale; substantially all revenues are earned in the United States. The company also offers 5G fixed wireless broadband and fiber services.

Related stocks: RCI (Rogers Communication, Inc.) · AMX (America Movil, S.A.B. de C.V.) · BCE (BCE, Inc.) · VZ (Verizon Communications Inc.) · CMCSA (Comcast Corporation)
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