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T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $196.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak growth.

T-Mobile US is a major US wireless carrier serving 142.4 million postpaid and prepaid customers as of December 31, 2025 under the T-Mobile, Metro by T-Mobile, and Mint Mobile brands. Revenue comes primarily from wireless service plans and device sales, with the UScellular... Read more

$196.16+21.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#16 of 40 Telecom Services
Stop $182.37Target $237.23(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$263.59+34.4%27 analysts
$237.23our TP
$196.16price
$263.59mean
$310

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $196.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.35, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.53)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5
Weak growth
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.8
P/E (Fwd)14.0
Mkt Cap$211.6B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn11.6%
ROE18.0%
Rev Growth10.6%
Beta0.42
Dividend2.09%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.53bearish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$125-36.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.2
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.35NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(4)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $182.01Resistance $206.78

Price Targets

$182
$237
A.Upside+20.9%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TMUS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $196.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $237.23 (+20.9%), stop $182.37 (−7.6%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the TMUS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $237.23 (+21.1% upside). Target $237.23 (+20.9%), stop $182.37 (−7.6%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Stop-loss: $182.37.

What are the risks of investing in TMUS?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is TMUS overvalued or undervalued?

T-Mobile US, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.8 (forward 14.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TMUS?

37 analysts cover TMUS with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $264.

What does T-Mobile US, Inc. do?T-Mobile US is a major US wireless carrier serving 142.4 million postpaid and prepaid customers as of December 31, 2025...

T-Mobile US is a major US wireless carrier serving 142.4 million postpaid and prepaid customers as of December 31, 2025 under the T-Mobile, Metro by T-Mobile, and Mint Mobile brands. Revenue comes primarily from wireless service plans and device sales, with the UScellular Wireless Business acquisition completed August 1, 2025.

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