Super Micro Computer delivered 123% revenue growth year-over-year driven by AI server demand, but a free cash flow deficit of negative 597% relative to net income, 17% short interest, a confirmed death cross, and mixed earnings history indicate the growth story has not yet translated into financial quality.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Revenue Growth Ai→Stable
- Severe Negative Cash Conversion→Stable
- High Short Interest Justified↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Stock Analysis
Technology · Computer Hardware
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.99 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).
Super Micro Computer designs and manufactures rack-scale IT solutions — servers, storage, networking, and liquid-cooling systems for AI and high-performance computing — sold to enterprise, cloud, and edge customers worldwide, manufacturing the majority of its systems in San... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.99 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Super Micro Computer, Inc.
About Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Four customers each accounted for 10% or more of Super Micro Computer's net sales in fiscal 2025, up from a single customer crossing that threshold in fiscal 2024, while sales to customers outside the United States rose to 40.6% of net sales from 32.0% a year earlier. The company sold rack-scale AI and high-performance-computing server, storage, and liquid-cooling systems to more than 1,000 direct customers across over 100 countries, backed by more than 3,200 research-and-development employees.
Supermicro sells Total IT Solutions — complete servers, storage systems, blade servers, and networking gear built on its modular Server Building Block Solutions architecture — through both a direct sales force targeting large cloud, enterprise, and OEM accounts and an indirect channel of distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and OEMs. The company designs products in close coordination with processor and GPU partners NVIDIA, Intel, and AMD to align new releases with their product roadmaps, and manufactures the majority of its systems at its San Jose headquarters while using related-party contract manufacturers Ablecom Technology and its affiliate Compuware Technology for chassis design and manufacturing coordination. Software management tools and global services, including on-site support plans and rack-level deployment services for AI clusters, are bundled into server and storage systems revenue rather than reported separately. Supermicro competes against global technology vendors such as Cisco and Dell, as well as lower-cost original design manufacturers.
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Supermicro's 10-K discloses extensive export-control exposure tied to U.S. restrictions on advanced GPUs and integrated circuits bound for China, first imposed in October 2022 and expanded in November 2023 to cover additional countries including parts of the Middle East, directly affecting products containing NVIDIA A100 and H100 components. That regulatory exposure became a governance issue in March 2026, when the company disclosed via Form 8-K that the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York had unsealed an indictment against three individuals associated with Supermicro, including board member and SVP Wally Liaw, over an alleged conspiracy to violate export-control laws; Liaw resigned from the Board effective March 20, 2026.
See also: Technology · Computer Hardware
From Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted September 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Super Micro Computer Stock (SMCI) Opinions on AI Server Demand and Trading Activity - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS What's Going On With Super Micro Computer Stock Wednesday? - Benzinga — Benzinga negative
- NEWS Supermicro Soars On Report. Why Nvidia Is Also Rallying. - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- NEWS Why Super Micro Computer Stock Popped Today - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Why Super Micro Computer Stock Popped Today - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
Generated 2026-09-14T06:36:57Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerfour customers10-K Item 1: 'Four customers each accounted for 10% or more of our net sales in fiscal year 2025 and one single customer accounted for 10% or more of net sales in fiscal year 2024.'
- MEDIUMGeographicoutside of the United States41%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to customers located outside of the United States represented 40.6%, 32.0%, and 32.1% of net sales in fiscal years 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'
- MEDIUMGeographicSan Jose, California manufacturing10-K Item 1: 'We manufacture the majority of our systems at our San Jose, California headquarters.'
- MEDIUMSupplierAblecom and Compuware10-K Item 1: 'We use Ablecom Technology, Inc. ... and its affiliate Compuware Technology, Inc. ... both of which are related parties, for contract design and manufacturing coordination support.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02MEDIUMDon Clegg, SVP of Worldwide Sales, retired effective May 15, 2026, continuing as a paid consultant for six months. Retirement not the result of any disagreement with the company.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-20Item 5.07LOWStockholders at SMCI's April 15, 2026 Annual Meeting approved amending and restating the 2020 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan, continuing authorization for cash and equity-based compensation awards. Routine governance matter.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-20Item 5.02HIGHSDNY federal prosecutors unsealed an indictment against three individuals tied to SMCI — board member/SVP Wally Liaw, a Taiwan sales manager, and a contractor — for alleged export-control violation conspiracy. Liaw resigned from the Board March 20, 2026; DeAnna Luna named to an acting role (detail truncated).SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.99 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $37.29. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $46.11 (-4.9% upside). Prior stop was $37.29. Stop-loss: $37.29.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Super Micro Computer, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover SMCI with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $42.
What does Super Micro Computer, Inc. do?Super Micro Computer designs and manufactures rack-scale IT solutions — servers, storage, networking, and...
Super Micro Computer designs and manufactures rack-scale IT solutions — servers, storage, networking, and liquid-cooling systems for AI and high-performance computing — sold to enterprise, cloud, and edge customers worldwide, manufacturing the majority of its systems in San Jose, California, plus Taiwan, the Netherlands, and Malaysia. The company sold to over 1,000 direct customers in 100+ countries in fiscal 2025, with four customers each accounting for 10% or more of net sales and 40.6% of sales from outside the U.S.