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Western Digital Corporation (WDC) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Computer Hardware

Wait for pullback to $365.72. BUY gates pass at $424.40, but concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $365.72 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Western Digital develops and manufactures hard disk drives for Cloud, Client, and Consumer end markets, following the February 2025 spin-off of its flash memory business as Sandisk. Manufacturing is concentrated in facilities in California and Asia; the company serves large... Read more

$424.40+19.7% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 14 Computer Hardware
Entry $365.72(R/R-minimum solve)Stop $340.12Target $437.69(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1Setup A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$375.17-11.6%23 analysts
$437.69our TP
$424.40price
$375.17mean
$182
$540

Wait for pullback to $365.72. BUY gates pass at $424.40, but concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $365.72 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.2% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)41.1
P/E (Fwd)29.3
Mkt Cap$148.6B
EV/EBITDA44.2
Profit Mgn35.6%
ROE41.1%
Rev Growth25.2%
Beta1.83
Dividend0.12%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV83%elevated
Max Pain$210-50.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersole-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'only available from a limited number of suppliers, some of whom are our sole-source suppliers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
0.8
Pe
2.9
Analyst Target
3.0
Forward Pe
4.1
Peg Ratio
8.0
Forward P/E: 29.3xPEG: 0.83

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.8
Growth Rank
3.3
Quality Rank
8.4
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
78 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $295.73Resistance $446.62

Price Targets

$340
$366
$438
A.Upside+3.1%
A.R:R-1.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WDC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $365.72. BUY gates pass at $424.40, but concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $365.72 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $437.69 (+3.1%), stop $340.12 (−24.8%), Setup A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WDC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $437.69 (+19.7% upside). Target $437.69 (+3.1%), stop $340.12 (−24.8%), Setup A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $340.12.

What are the risks of investing in WDC?

Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.2% away).

Is WDC overvalued or undervalued?

Western Digital Corporation trades at a P/E of 41.1 (forward 29.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about WDC?

30 analysts cover WDC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $375.

What does Western Digital Corporation do?Western Digital develops and manufactures hard disk drives for Cloud, Client, and Consumer end markets, following the...

Western Digital develops and manufactures hard disk drives for Cloud, Client, and Consumer end markets, following the February 2025 spin-off of its flash memory business as Sandisk. Manufacturing is concentrated in facilities in California and Asia; the company serves large hyperscale, enterprise, and consumer storage customers.

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