Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 7.1 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.98
- ▸Attractively valued
PTC · Why this verdict
Why PTC (PTC) is rated BUY NOW
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY NOW
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
PTC earns a 34% return on equity, generates operating margins of 42%, passes the Rule of 40 at a score of 55, and holds a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, placing it in the top tier of software business quality by multiple measures. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 25% and operating margins stay above 35% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion at 79% of net income is flagged as a warning, and FCF quality below 6 suggests some accrual-based earnings inflation. | ||
PTC has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 34%, including a 53% beat in the November 2025 quarter, reflecting consistent execution above market expectations. Earnings | Earnings per share beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst estimates may be set conservatively following the stock's technical decline, making beats easier to achieve while the underlying business decelerates. | ||
RSI of 18 places the stock in extreme oversold territory, the price is near the Bollinger lower band, and a volume surge has been observed, historically associated with short-term reversal potential in high-quality names. Momentum breakdown | RSI rises above 40 within 6 months and price recovers above the entry target of $132.74. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 18 with a confirmed death cross and a 200-day moving average slope of -5.8% per month indicates a high probability that the downtrend continues before any reversal, making timing risk extremely high. | ||
The put/call ratio is 58.65, one of the most extreme hedging signals possible, combined with implied volatility of 83%, indicating that options market participants are aggressively positioning for further downside. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio falls below 5.0 within 6 months as the technical setup improves and hedging demand normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterAn extreme put/call ratio can also signal near-term capitulation, where the heaviest bearish positioning coincides with a price bottom before a sharp reversal. | ||
PTC earns a 34% return on equity, generates operating margins of 42%, passes the Rule of 40 at a score of 55, and holds a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, placing it in the top tier of software business quality by multiple measures.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 25% and operating margins stay above 35% over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow conversion at 79% of net income is flagged as a warning, and FCF quality below 6 suggests some accrual-based earnings inflation.
PTC has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 34%, including a 53% beat in the November 2025 quarter, reflecting consistent execution above market expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise above 10%.
CounterAnalyst estimates may be set conservatively following the stock's technical decline, making beats easier to achieve while the underlying business decelerates.
RSI of 18 places the stock in extreme oversold territory, the price is near the Bollinger lower band, and a volume surge has been observed, historically associated with short-term reversal potential in high-quality names.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI rises above 40 within 6 months and price recovers above the entry target of $132.74.
CounterAn RSI of 18 with a confirmed death cross and a 200-day moving average slope of -5.8% per month indicates a high probability that the downtrend continues before any reversal, making timing risk extremely high.
The put/call ratio is 58.65, one of the most extreme hedging signals possible, combined with implied volatility of 83%, indicating that options market participants are aggressively positioning for further downside.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 5.0 within 6 months as the technical setup improves and hedging demand normalizes.
CounterAn extreme put/call ratio can also signal near-term capitulation, where the heaviest bearish positioning coincides with a price bottom before a sharp reversal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PTC Inc. combines a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, a PEG ratio of 0.94, 34% return on equity, and Rule of 40 score of 55 with deeply depressed momentum signals including RSI of 18 and a confirmed death cross, creating a high-quality business available at a potentially attractive price if the technical setup resolves.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 5.9 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 34%
- ▸Strong margins: 42%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 79% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $118,993 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 8.9 |
| growth rank | 6.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.1 |
| support resistance | 5.5 |
| 52w position | 1.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 2.5 |
| put call | 6.9 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.98, quality 8.3/10, growth 8.9/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARPPassed (10)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Technology:8/10
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.3>=7.5+momentum=6.3>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
2.29
Upside
+29.5%
Downside
12.9%
Sizing output
HALF
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -43% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_NOW verdict: quality 8.3 and growth 8.9 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 2.29 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.9, Quality at 8.3, and Value at 7.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.4. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.29 and an engine sizing output of HALF.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Compounder Fundamentals
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Oversold Technical Setup
Trip ifRSI remains below 30 for more than 60 consecutive days without a reversal above 35.
- P4Elevated Options Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio exceeds 20.0 on rising open interest for more than 30 consecutive days.