Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 6.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.06
- ▸Attractively valued
PNR · Why this verdict
Why Pentair (PNR) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Pentair is a high-quality water treatment and flow control industrial with a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, a forward P/E of 12.8x, and best-in-class margins at 16%, offering 22.7% analyst upside — though it remains in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining 4.4% per month.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Pentair ranks best-in-class among specialty industrial machinery peers on margins with 16% operating margins, a quality score of 6.9/10, and a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 — the highest possible — reflecting best-in-class financial health across all 9 dimensions including profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency. Quality breakdown | Operating margin remains above 14% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or above for the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterIndustrial machinery margins are sensitive to raw material input costs and pricing power — competition from lower-cost manufacturers in Asia could gradually erode the premium margin position that Pentair currently enjoys. | ||
Pentair has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.84%, with actual EPS ranging from $1.18 to $1.39 consistently above estimates — a steady beat pattern indicating reliable management execution and demand visibility in specialty industrial markets. Earnings | The company beats earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive quarterly reports due approximately 35 days from now. | →Stable |
| CounterA 3.84% average positive surprise is modest and could reflect conservative guidance setting rather than genuine business outperformance; small beat margins are easily reversed by input cost shocks or customer capex deferrals. | ||
At a forward P/E of 12.8x and a PEG of 1.11 with 22.7% implied upside to the analyst price target of $91.05, Pentair is attractively priced relative to its quality level, and the risk/reward ratio of 4.54 is the second-best in this analysis batch. Valuation breakdown | The stock reaches the analyst price target range near $91 within 12 months as momentum recovers and the fundamental case is recognized. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWeak revenue growth at only a low single-digit rate (growth score of 3.8/10) means the forward P/E of 12.8x may not be as cheap as it appears — earnings growth is not strong enough to justify material multiple expansion. | ||
The 200-day moving average is declining at 4.4% per month in a death-cross pattern, with the stock below its long-term trend, constraining when the fundamental case can be expressed — the recovery setup requires technical confirmation before adding meaningful risk. Warnings | The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average within 6 months and holds above it for 15 consecutive trading days, confirming trend reversal. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe MACD is already improving and volume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) suggests buying pressure is building beneath the surface — the technical downtrend may be closer to resolution than the death-cross pattern implies. | ||
Pentair ranks best-in-class among specialty industrial machinery peers on margins with 16% operating margins, a quality score of 6.9/10, and a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 — the highest possible — reflecting best-in-class financial health across all 9 dimensions including profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin remains above 14% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or above for the next 4 quarters.
CounterIndustrial machinery margins are sensitive to raw material input costs and pricing power — competition from lower-cost manufacturers in Asia could gradually erode the premium margin position that Pentair currently enjoys.
Pentair has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.84%, with actual EPS ranging from $1.18 to $1.39 consistently above estimates — a steady beat pattern indicating reliable management execution and demand visibility in specialty industrial markets.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive quarterly reports due approximately 35 days from now.
CounterA 3.84% average positive surprise is modest and could reflect conservative guidance setting rather than genuine business outperformance; small beat margins are easily reversed by input cost shocks or customer capex deferrals.
At a forward P/E of 12.8x and a PEG of 1.11 with 22.7% implied upside to the analyst price target of $91.05, Pentair is attractively priced relative to its quality level, and the risk/reward ratio of 4.54 is the second-best in this analysis batch.
Tripped↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reaches the analyst price target range near $91 within 12 months as momentum recovers and the fundamental case is recognized.
CounterWeak revenue growth at only a low single-digit rate (growth score of 3.8/10) means the forward P/E of 12.8x may not be as cheap as it appears — earnings growth is not strong enough to justify material multiple expansion.
The 200-day moving average is declining at 4.4% per month in a death-cross pattern, with the stock below its long-term trend, constraining when the fundamental case can be expressed — the recovery setup requires technical confirmation before adding meaningful risk.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average within 6 months and holds above it for 15 consecutive trading days, confirming trend reversal.
CounterThe MACD is already improving and volume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) suggests buying pressure is building beneath the surface — the technical downtrend may be closer to resolution than the death-cross pattern implies.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.9 |
| ROA | 5.9 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 9.1 |
| Net margin | 8.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 4.6 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 6.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 20%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.1 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 1.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 1.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.4 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.7% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (3)
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.57
Upside
+8.0%
Downside
14.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -41% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Insider at 7.3 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Value at 7.2, and Quality at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 3.8, Momentum at 4.2, and Technical at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.57 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Consistency
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus estimates by more than 5% in 2 of the next 4 quarterly reports.
- P2Best In Class Margins
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 12% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Attractive Valuation UpsideTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $75, implying less than 1% upside from current price and a fundamental re-rating lower.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Constraint
Trip ifStock price drops below $62, exceeding a 16% decline from current levels and accelerating below key technical support zones.