Value
4.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.4 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.3 |
| PEG | 8.8 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 51.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.70
PKE · Why this verdict
Why Park Aerospace (PKE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Park Aerospace is a small-cap aerospace materials maker with strong 27% YoY growth, a 3-of-4 earnings beat record and 41% analyst upside, but heavy insider selling, weak price momentum and customer concentration keep sizing at zero.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Park Aerospace shows quality fundamentals: strong margins of 18%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and conservative debt levels. Quality breakdown | Margins hold near 18% and the F-Score stays at 7 or higher over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality is flagged with FCF at only 57% of net income, suggesting reported profit is not fully converting into cash. | ||
Park Aerospace is sustaining strong growth of 27% YoY with earnings beats in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue keeps rising above the latest $20.8M and EPS continues to beat estimates over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is lumpy quarter to quarter (e.g. $24.2M then $18.3M), so the 27% growth could reflect timing of a few large orders rather than durable demand. | ||
The analyst target of $36.13 implies 40.6% upside from the $25.70 price, with a reward-to-risk of 4.06 against a 10% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Price re-rates toward the analyst target as earnings beats continue to be reported. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target rests on very few estimates and the signal is dampened; the upside may never be realized. | ||
Concentration is a key vulnerability: the ten largest customers account for 71.0% of sales and raw materials are sole-sourced. Bear case | Customer concentration does not worsen and no supply disruption interrupts production over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLoss or delay at one large aerospace customer, or a sole-source supplier problem, could cut revenue sharply since there is no alternative supply or diversified base. | ||
Insiders sold $9.4M, about 1.69% of market cap, with zero buys over 90 days, while price momentum is weak at 2.0/10 with RSI near 20 and a price below the 200-day average. Insider | Insider selling fades and momentum recovers as the price stabilizes above its 200-day average within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSelling of this size by 7 separate transactions may signal insiders see the stock as fully valued, and a falling OBV shows distribution that could continue. | ||
Park Aerospace shows quality fundamentals: strong margins of 18%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and conservative debt levels.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins hold near 18% and the F-Score stays at 7 or higher over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality is flagged with FCF at only 57% of net income, suggesting reported profit is not fully converting into cash.
Park Aerospace is sustaining strong growth of 27% YoY with earnings beats in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue keeps rising above the latest $20.8M and EPS continues to beat estimates over the next 12 months.
CounterRevenue is lumpy quarter to quarter (e.g. $24.2M then $18.3M), so the 27% growth could reflect timing of a few large orders rather than durable demand.
The analyst target of $36.13 implies 40.6% upside from the $25.70 price, with a reward-to-risk of 4.06 against a 10% downside to the stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price re-rates toward the analyst target as earnings beats continue to be reported.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target rests on very few estimates and the signal is dampened; the upside may never be realized.
Concentration is a key vulnerability: the ten largest customers account for 71.0% of sales and raw materials are sole-sourced.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Customer concentration does not worsen and no supply disruption interrupts production over 12 months.
CounterLoss or delay at one large aerospace customer, or a sole-source supplier problem, could cut revenue sharply since there is no alternative supply or diversified base.
Insiders sold $9.4M, about 1.69% of market cap, with zero buys over 90 days, while price momentum is weak at 2.0/10 with RSI near 20 and a price below the 200-day average.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling fades and momentum recovers as the price stabilizes above its 200-day average within 12 months.
CounterSelling of this size by 7 separate transactions may signal insiders see the stock as fully valued, and a falling OBV shows distribution that could continue.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.7 |
| ROA | 4.6 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 7.4 |
| Net margin | 9.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 4.5 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 57% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 8.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 62%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $7,365,879 (1.276% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 6.1 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 7.5 |
| 52w position | 3.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 1.4 |
| put call | 9.6 |
| implied vol | 2.5 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 65%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:75d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- INSIDER:1.28%=EXTREME
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
4.28
Upside
+37.9%
Downside
8.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 9.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( INSIDER:1.28%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.28 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Value at 4.5, Momentum at 4.7, and Insider at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Earnings Beats
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst target upside falls below 15% as consensus target is cut below $30.
- P3Customer Supplier Concentration Risk
Trip ifTen largest customers share exceeds 80% of sales.
- P4Insider Selling Weak Momentum
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 3% of market cap over 90 days with 0 insider buys.
- P5Quality Balance Sheet Strength
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 12% from the current level near 18%.