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PAXPatria Investments LimitedBuy Wait6.9·$11.00+3.00%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Patria Investments offers a rare combination of 22% revenue growth, a wide economic moat, strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a PEG of 0.04 — though two consecutive earnings misses and a confirmed downtrend temper near-term entry conviction.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat Compounder QualityStable
  • Extreme Peg ValuationDeteriorating
  • Industry Growth LeadershipStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Patria Investments Limited (PAX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

Buy WaitGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Earnings in 0 days (2026-07-31). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $10.41. BUY gates pass at $11.00, but the engine prefers a shallower entry for a wider margin of safety. Engine's entry $10.41 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments. It seeks to be sector agnostic with... Read more

$11.00+23.5% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#7 of 239 Asset Management
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield5.52%(5y avg 5.47%)Payout134.68%at-risk
Entry $10.41(support + ATR (held))Stop $9.86Target $13.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.7:1
Analyst target$15.57+41.6%7 analysts
$13.55our TP
$11.00price
$15.57mean
$20

Wait for pullback to $10.41. BUY gates pass at $11.00, but the engine prefers a shallower entry for a wider margin of safety. Engine's entry $10.41 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 2026today· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
No bear case signals

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.8
P/E (Fwd)7.0
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn18.1%
ROE13.3%
Rev Growth22.0%
Beta0.74
Dividend5.52%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.57bearish
IV87%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.0>=5.5A.R:R 4.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.64Resistance $11.38

Price Targets

$10
$10
$14
A.Upside+23.5%
A.R:R4.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $10.41. BUY gates pass at $11.00, but the engine prefers a shallower entry for a wider margin of safety. Engine's entry $10.41 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $13.55 (+23.2%), stop $9.86 (−11.6%), A.R:R 4.7:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.55 (+23.5% upside). Target $13.55 (+23.2%), stop $9.86 (−11.6%), A.R:R 4.7:1. Stop-loss: $9.86.

Is PAX overvalued or undervalued?

Patria Investments Limited trades at a P/E of 24.8 (forward 7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about PAX?

11 analysts cover PAX with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Patria Investments Limited do?Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private...

Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments. It seeks to be sector agnostic with focus on agribusiness, power & energy, healthcare, logistics & transportations, food & beverage, agricultural products, packaged foods and meats, education services, outsourced business services, and digital & tech services. It prefers to invest globally with focus on Latin America, Europe, United States, North America and Brazil. It seeks to invest between $38.48 million and $72.14 million per transaction. The firm seeks a majority or minority stake in its portfolio companies. The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investments funds, constructivist equity funds, and real estate and credit funds. The firm seeks to co-invest with other investors. Patria Investments Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands with additional offices across South America, North America, Europe and Asia. Patria Investments Limited operates as a subsidiary of Patria Holdings Limited.

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