Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.0 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
PAX · Why this verdict
Why Patria Investments (PAX) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Patria Investments offers a rare combination of 22% revenue growth, a wide economic moat, strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a PEG of 0.04 — though two consecutive earnings misses and a confirmed downtrend temper near-term entry conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Patria Investments is identified as having a wide economic moat with strong returns, growing revenue 22% year over year while maintaining operating margins at 18%, placing it in the top tier of alternative asset managers. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% year over year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the high-growth compounder profile. | →Stable |
| CounterWide moat assessments in asset management are highly dependent on continued performance fee generation, which is vulnerable to market downturns and asset outflows. | ||
At a PEG ratio of 0.04 and forward P/E of 7.5x, Patria Investments is priced at a dramatic discount to its earnings growth trajectory, with 34% analyst upside to approximately $13.55. Valuation breakdown | Price rises above $13.00 within 12 months as the market reprices the growth discount. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTwo consecutive earnings misses suggest growth may be decelerating, which could explain the low multiple rather than representing a mispricing opportunity. | ||
Patria ranks as an industry growth leader in the asset management sector with 22% year-over-year growth, far outpacing peers and indicating strong fund-raising momentum in Latin American alternative assets. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% annually over the next 12 months, sustaining the industry growth leadership position. | →Stable |
| CounterAs a small-cap asset manager with $1.8B market cap concentrated in Latin America, growth can be disrupted by political risk or currency devaluation in key markets. | ||
Despite the 200-day moving average trending downward, the MACD is improving and RSI has reached 56, signaling a potential momentum recovery from the prior downtrend. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average within 6 months, confirming the momentum recovery thesis. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 200-day moving average is still declining at 1.7% per month and earnings have missed twice recently, suggesting the recovery signal may not be durable. | ||
Patria Investments is identified as having a wide economic moat with strong returns, growing revenue 22% year over year while maintaining operating margins at 18%, placing it in the top tier of alternative asset managers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% year over year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the high-growth compounder profile.
CounterWide moat assessments in asset management are highly dependent on continued performance fee generation, which is vulnerable to market downturns and asset outflows.
At a PEG ratio of 0.04 and forward P/E of 7.5x, Patria Investments is priced at a dramatic discount to its earnings growth trajectory, with 34% analyst upside to approximately $13.55.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $13.00 within 12 months as the market reprices the growth discount.
CounterTwo consecutive earnings misses suggest growth may be decelerating, which could explain the low multiple rather than representing a mispricing opportunity.
Patria ranks as an industry growth leader in the asset management sector with 22% year-over-year growth, far outpacing peers and indicating strong fund-raising momentum in Latin American alternative assets.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% annually over the next 12 months, sustaining the industry growth leadership position.
CounterAs a small-cap asset manager with $1.8B market cap concentrated in Latin America, growth can be disrupted by political risk or currency devaluation in key markets.
Despite the 200-day moving average trending downward, the MACD is improving and RSI has reached 56, signaling a potential momentum recovery from the prior downtrend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average within 6 months, confirming the momentum recovery thesis.
CounterThe 200-day moving average is still declining at 1.7% per month and earnings have missed twice recently, suggesting the recovery signal may not be durable.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 286% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 22, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 4.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 58%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $79,075 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.7 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 1.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.20
- ▸High IV: 84%
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
- ▸Dividend: 7.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Strong overall profile with balanced scores. | Falling knife (FK=6.5): wait for stabilization.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_D_BALANCED|L5:FALLING_KNIFE_FK=6.5|ENTRY_STICKY:CANDIDATE_HELDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.55
Upside
+37.3%
Downside
10.5%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -45% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The D-path balanced-high-score trigger fired: quality 7.2 and value 8.4 both cleared their gates at R:R of 3.55.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.4, and Quality at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.55 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Compounder Quality
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating moat erosion.
- P2Extreme Peg Valuation
Trip ifPrice drops below $9.50 and holds below that level for more than 5 trading days, invalidating the valuation thesis.
- P3Industry Growth Leadership
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year over year for 3 or more consecutive quarters, confirming a sustained deceleration.
- P4Macd Recovery Signal
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and stays below that level for more than 20 consecutive trading days after the MACD recovery.