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OMABGrupo Aeroportuario del Centro Sell5.6·$98.20-0.54%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte is a high-quality Mexican airport operator with a 43% return on equity, 33% net margin, and strong momentum indicators including a volume surge of 2.3 times average, though consecutive earnings misses and the stock trading above its near-term resistance target limit entry appeal at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Returns Quality ProfileStable
  • Strong Volume Momentum SurgeImproving
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro (OMAB) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Airports & Air Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $98.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, holds concessions to develop, operate, and maintain airports in Mexico. It operates 13 international airports in Monterrey; Acapulco, Mazatlán, and Zihuatanejo; Chihuahua, Culiacán, Durango,... Read more

$98.20+8.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#3 of 5 Airports & Air Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield46.35%
IncomeYield5.85%(5y avg 3.78%)Payout85.28%at-risk
Stop $93.98Target $106.71(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$122.65+24.9%8 analysts
$106.71our TP
$98.20price
$122.65mean
$150

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $98.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 22, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.3 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.7%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.8
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$4.8B
EV/EBITDA1.7
Profit Mgn33.2%
ROE60.5%
Rev Growth2.6%
Beta0.32
Dividend5.85%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV60%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
5.0
Quality Rank
7.8

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.1
Earnings Growth
4.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
1.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.8
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 5.8%
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $96.89Resistance $105.11

Price Targets

$94
$107
A.Upside+8.7%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-22 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OMAB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $98.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $93.98. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OMAB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $106.71 (+8.7% upside). Prior stop was $93.98. Stop-loss: $93.98.

What are the risks of investing in OMAB?

Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0.

Is OMAB overvalued or undervalued?

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro trades at a P/E of 14.8 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OMAB?

20 analysts cover OMAB with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $123.

What does Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro do?Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, holds concessions to develop,...

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, holds concessions to develop, operate, and maintain airports in Mexico. It operates 13 international airports in Monterrey; Acapulco, Mazatlán, and Zihuatanejo; Chihuahua, Culiacán, Durango, San Luis Potosí, Tampico, Torreón, and Zacatecas; and Ciudad Juárez and Reynosa cities. The company is also involved in leasing of space to restaurants and retailers. In addition, it engages in the operation of parking facilities; OMA Carga business comprising warehouses that provides cargo logistics services, such as storage, handling, custody maneuvers, loading and unloading, x-ray screening of exports, and other services; the Terminal 2 NH Collection Hotel; and the Hilton Garden Inn Hotel at the Monterrey airport; and non-permanent ground transportation. Further, the company provides aeronautical services, which include passenger, aircraft landing and parking, airport security, passenger walkway, and complementary services; car parking; checked baggage-screening services; and construction services. Additionally, it builds and operates industrial park at the Monterrey airport. Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.

Related stocks: CAAP (Corporacion America Airports SA) · PAC (Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacific) · JOBY (Joby Aviation, Inc.) · PAM (Pampa Energia S.A.) · HSHP (Himalaya Shipping Ltd.)
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