Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.3 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 8.4 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.76
- ▸Attractively valued
OMAB · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro (OMAB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte is a high-quality Mexican airport operator with a 43% return on equity, 33% net margin, and strong momentum indicators including a volume surge of 2.3 times average, though consecutive earnings misses and the stock trading above its near-term resistance target limit entry appeal at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
OMAB generates a return on equity of 43%, a net margin of 33%, and scores at the top of its peer group on both quality and value metrics, reflecting the durable economics of a regulated airport concession business with long-term passenger traffic growth tied to Mexican aviation demand. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 35% over the next 4 reported quarters, confirming the quality of the concession model. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFree cash flow of 53% relative to net income carries an earnings quality warning, indicating that reported profits are not fully converting to cash and may include non-cash income items from infrastructure accounting. | ||
OMAB's momentum score of 8.6 is among the highest possible, driven by a 2.3x average volume surge on up days and rising on-balance volume, indicating significant institutional buying interest and strong trend continuation from the current price level. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score stays above 7.0 over the next 3 months as volume accumulation sustains the upward price trend. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh momentum scores and volume surges can precede exhaustion moves, and the stock is already trading above its near-term resistance target with a negative asymmetry ratio of -0.08, suggesting limited remaining upside. | ||
OMAB missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters (including both of the 2 most recent quarters), with misses of -7.2% and -13.5%, indicating the business is delivering below analyst expectations despite strong volume metrics. Earnings | Earnings surprise turns positive in the next 2 consecutive quarters as management resets guidance to reflect actual performance levels. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe prior 2 quarters produced a beat and an inline result, and the Mexican aviation market can be impacted by peso/dollar exchange dynamics that are notoriously difficult to model, making misses sometimes reflect FX accounting rather than passenger volume weakness. | ||
The current price of $109 is above the near-term resistance-based take-profit of $107.55, meaning the stock has already moved past the technical level where the model identifies favorable entry, and the reward-to-risk ratio has turned negative at -0.22. Targets | A pullback to below $100 creates a more favorable entry where the risk/reward ratio rises above 1.5 before the thesis expires. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum and rising estimates can extend price beyond short-term resistance targets, and a negative asymmetry ratio near zero (-0.08) may simply reflect that the market is efficiently pricing a high-quality business near fair value rather than at a discount. | ||
OMAB generates a return on equity of 43%, a net margin of 33%, and scores at the top of its peer group on both quality and value metrics, reflecting the durable economics of a regulated airport concession business with long-term passenger traffic growth tied to Mexican aviation demand.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 35% over the next 4 reported quarters, confirming the quality of the concession model.
CounterFree cash flow of 53% relative to net income carries an earnings quality warning, indicating that reported profits are not fully converting to cash and may include non-cash income items from infrastructure accounting.
OMAB's momentum score of 8.6 is among the highest possible, driven by a 2.3x average volume surge on up days and rising on-balance volume, indicating significant institutional buying interest and strong trend continuation from the current price level.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score stays above 7.0 over the next 3 months as volume accumulation sustains the upward price trend.
CounterHigh momentum scores and volume surges can precede exhaustion moves, and the stock is already trading above its near-term resistance target with a negative asymmetry ratio of -0.08, suggesting limited remaining upside.
OMAB missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters (including both of the 2 most recent quarters), with misses of -7.2% and -13.5%, indicating the business is delivering below analyst expectations despite strong volume metrics.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise turns positive in the next 2 consecutive quarters as management resets guidance to reflect actual performance levels.
CounterThe prior 2 quarters produced a beat and an inline result, and the Mexican aviation market can be impacted by peso/dollar exchange dynamics that are notoriously difficult to model, making misses sometimes reflect FX accounting rather than passenger volume weakness.
The current price of $109 is above the near-term resistance-based take-profit of $107.55, meaning the stock has already moved past the technical level where the model identifies favorable entry, and the reward-to-risk ratio has turned negative at -0.22.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- A pullback to below $100 creates a more favorable entry where the risk/reward ratio rises above 1.5 before the thesis expires.
CounterStrong momentum and rising estimates can extend price beyond short-term resistance targets, and a negative asymmetry ratio near zero (-0.08) may simply reflect that the market is efficiently pricing a high-quality business near fair value rather than at a discount.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.6 |
| FCF quality | 3.3 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 61%
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 41% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 16 (fail)
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 4.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.7 |
| days to cover | 9.2 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 3.9 |
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.06
Upside
+0.3%
Downside
5.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 50, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.06 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Quality at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.0, Peer rank at 3.0, and Growth at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Returns Quality Profile
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 30% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the concession economics are deteriorating.
- P2Strong Volume Momentum Surge
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 6.0 within the next 60 days, indicating the volume surge has not translated into sustained accumulation.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% for a third consecutive quarter, confirming a persistent execution gap versus analyst estimates.
- P4Price Above Resistance Target
Trip ifStock price rises above $115 without a corresponding increase in analyst targets, pushing the negative asymmetry ratio below -0.5.