Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 6.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.26
- ▸Attractively valued
OMAB · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro (OMAB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte is a high-quality Mexican airport operator with a 43% return on equity, 33% net margin, and strong momentum indicators including a volume surge of 2.3 times average, though consecutive earnings misses and the stock trading above its near-term resistance target limit entry appeal at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
OMAB generates a return on equity of 43%, a net margin of 33%, and scores at the top of its peer group on both quality and value metrics, reflecting the durable economics of a regulated airport concession business with long-term passenger traffic growth tied to Mexican aviation demand. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 35% over the next 4 reported quarters, confirming the quality of the concession model. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFree cash flow of 53% relative to net income carries an earnings quality warning, indicating that reported profits are not fully converting to cash and may include non-cash income items from infrastructure accounting. | ||
OMAB's momentum score of 8.6 is among the highest possible, driven by a 2.3x average volume surge on up days and rising on-balance volume, indicating significant institutional buying interest and strong trend continuation from the current price level. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score stays above 7.0 over the next 3 months as volume accumulation sustains the upward price trend. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh momentum scores and volume surges can precede exhaustion moves, and the stock is already trading above its near-term resistance target with a negative asymmetry ratio of -0.08, suggesting limited remaining upside. | ||
OMAB missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters (including both of the 2 most recent quarters), with misses of -7.2% and -13.5%, indicating the business is delivering below analyst expectations despite strong volume metrics. Earnings | Earnings surprise turns positive in the next 2 consecutive quarters as management resets guidance to reflect actual performance levels. | →Stable |
| CounterThe prior 2 quarters produced a beat and an inline result, and the Mexican aviation market can be impacted by peso/dollar exchange dynamics that are notoriously difficult to model, making misses sometimes reflect FX accounting rather than passenger volume weakness. | ||
The current price of $109 is above the near-term resistance-based take-profit of $107.55, meaning the stock has already moved past the technical level where the model identifies favorable entry, and the reward-to-risk ratio has turned negative at -0.22. Targets | A pullback to below $100 creates a more favorable entry where the risk/reward ratio rises above 1.5 before the thesis expires. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStrong momentum and rising estimates can extend price beyond short-term resistance targets, and a negative asymmetry ratio near zero (-0.08) may simply reflect that the market is efficiently pricing a high-quality business near fair value rather than at a discount. | ||
OMAB generates a return on equity of 43%, a net margin of 33%, and scores at the top of its peer group on both quality and value metrics, reflecting the durable economics of a regulated airport concession business with long-term passenger traffic growth tied to Mexican aviation demand.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 35% over the next 4 reported quarters, confirming the quality of the concession model.
CounterFree cash flow of 53% relative to net income carries an earnings quality warning, indicating that reported profits are not fully converting to cash and may include non-cash income items from infrastructure accounting.
OMAB's momentum score of 8.6 is among the highest possible, driven by a 2.3x average volume surge on up days and rising on-balance volume, indicating significant institutional buying interest and strong trend continuation from the current price level.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score stays above 7.0 over the next 3 months as volume accumulation sustains the upward price trend.
CounterHigh momentum scores and volume surges can precede exhaustion moves, and the stock is already trading above its near-term resistance target with a negative asymmetry ratio of -0.08, suggesting limited remaining upside.
OMAB missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters (including both of the 2 most recent quarters), with misses of -7.2% and -13.5%, indicating the business is delivering below analyst expectations despite strong volume metrics.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise turns positive in the next 2 consecutive quarters as management resets guidance to reflect actual performance levels.
CounterThe prior 2 quarters produced a beat and an inline result, and the Mexican aviation market can be impacted by peso/dollar exchange dynamics that are notoriously difficult to model, making misses sometimes reflect FX accounting rather than passenger volume weakness.
The current price of $109 is above the near-term resistance-based take-profit of $107.55, meaning the stock has already moved past the technical level where the model identifies favorable entry, and the reward-to-risk ratio has turned negative at -0.22.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- A pullback to below $100 creates a more favorable entry where the risk/reward ratio rises above 1.5 before the thesis expires.
CounterStrong momentum and rising estimates can extend price beyond short-term resistance targets, and a negative asymmetry ratio near zero (-0.08) may simply reflect that the market is efficiently pricing a high-quality business near fair value rather than at a discount.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 2.7 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 52%
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 34% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.4 |
| EPS growth | 2.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 80)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 5.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-1.2% upside). Wait for pullback. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|V8:TARGET_REACHED|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:115d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=7.7>=7.5+momentum=5.9>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-0.08
Upside
-1.2%
Downside
14.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.1=NEGATIVE outcome against Quality at 7.7 and asymmetric R:R of -0.08.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.7, Value at 7.4, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 1.9, Catalyst at 3.6, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.08 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Returns Quality Profile
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 30% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the concession economics are deteriorating.
- P2Strong Volume Momentum Surge
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 6.0 within the next 60 days, indicating the volume surge has not translated into sustained accumulation.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% for a third consecutive quarter, confirming a persistent execution gap versus analyst estimates.
- P4Price Above Resistance Target
Trip ifStock price rises above $115 without a corresponding increase in analyst targets, pushing the negative asymmetry ratio below -0.5.